Persian Files ISSN 2975-0598 Volume 27 Issue 2
Author: Silvia Boltuc

Executive Summary

The dynamics of Iran-Afghanistan relations have shifted significantly since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021. Although Iran has refrained from formally recognising the Taliban government, it has engaged pragmatically, establishing cooperative frameworks for trade, transit, and other bilateral engagements.

This report examines different aspects of Iran-Afghanistan relations, covering recent diplomatic interactions, economic collaborations, security and border challenges, and resource disputes. Key areas of contention, such as migration pressures and water-sharing disagreements, have increasingly influenced both countries’ policies.

The report concludes with targeted recommendations to enhance stability and improve bilateral relations.

Background Information

Recent political and diplomatic events have stressed the complex nature of Iran-Afghanistan relations. The election of Masud Pezeshkian, a reformist candidate in Iran, received mixed responses from Afghanistan.

The Taliban offered a restrained congratulatory message, while anti-Taliban factions, including the Afghanistan Liberation Front (AFF) and the National Front of Afghanistan (NFA), expressed optimism about the potential for a favourable shift in Tehran’s Afghanistan policy.

Key bilateral economic developments include agreements on the Chabahar Transit Project, establishing the Iran-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce, and enhancing rail connectivity via the Khaf-Herat railway. Iran’s focus on infrastructural investment in Afghanistan aims to bolster trade routes, alleviate regional economic pressures, and support Afghanistan’s connectivity to global markets.

Iran-Afghanistan: Geopolitical Scenario

• Diplomatic Relations and Political Alignment. Tehran’s diplomatic engagement with Kabul has been cautious yet strategically oriented, aiming to safeguard its interests despite the Taliban’s ideological stance. Pragmatic engagements in trade, security cooperation, and infrastructure projects balance the Iranian government’s restrained approach toward formal recognition. Tehran’s government has shown limited flexibility in altering its stance toward Afghanistan, yet it faces pressures to address Afghan migration and border security challenges. The varied responses from Afghan political factions highlight internal divisions and underscore Iran’s influence on Afghanistan’s political landscape considering the significant presence of a Shia community in the country (Hazara).
• Economic Cooperation and Investment. Economic cooperation between Iran and Afghanistan remains a vital component of bilateral relations, facilitating regional connectivity and economic growth. Notable projects include:
  • Chabahar Transit Project: Afghanistan has become increasingly reliant on the Iranian port as a key transit route to India, bypassing the more contentious routes through Pakistan.
  • Joint Chamber of Commerce: This initiative promotes cross-border trade and investment, focusing on sectors such as agriculture, transit, and small-scale industries to integrate Afghan markets with Iran.
  • Khaf-Herat Railway: This railway agreement is pivotal for Kabul’s trade, enhancing the movement of goods and providing Iran with strategic leverage over Afghan trade routes.
• Migration and Border Security. With an estimated Afghan migrant population of 3.8 to 5 million within its borders, Iran faces significant socio-economic pressures from Afghan immigration. Economic strain, compounded by sanctions, has fuelled anti-migrant rhetoric, and Iranian authorities have aimed to deport up to 2 million undocumented Afghans, creating friction in bilateral relations. Recent border incidents involving Afghan migrants and Iranian security forces have further complicated the relationship, underscoring the need for a coordinated border security policy to prevent escalation.
• Water Disputes and Environmental Concerns. A longstanding dispute over water resources from the Helmand River continues to strain relations. Although the 1973 Helmand River Water Treaty outlines specific water allocations to Iran, recurrent droughts and Afghan infrastructure projects have led to diminished flow, causing tension.
• “Para-diplomacy” and Cultural Diplomacy. To manage political sensitivities, both Iran and Afghanistan could leverage “para-diplomacy” and cultural diplomacy. Art exchanges, educational programmes, and music festivals are potential avenues for fostering mutual understanding and de-escalating national-level tensions. Economic para-diplomacy, focusing on private sector initiatives and joint cross-border economic zones, could promote socio-economic stability in border areas, enabling deeper integration and cultural connectivity.

Conclusion

The relationship between Iran and Afghanistan is a complex mix of cooperation and competition, rooted in their common history but strained by differing political situations and economic challenges. Tehran’s pragmatic engagement, characterised by selective economic and infrastructural investments, aims to mitigate the impact of Afghanistan’s internal instability.

To enhance the resilience of bilateral relations, both nations must address fundamental issues, including secure border management, water resource allocation, and socio-cultural ties. Several forms of diplomacy and collaborative resource management present promising avenues to stabilise and deepen relations, offering both countries potential pathways to mitigate future challenges and foster a more balanced partnership.

By contrast, security issues related to terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, mainly the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) or al-Qaeda, pose a significant threat to the Iranian territory which in the last years has experienced different waves of violent attacks. The success of the Iranian-Afghan relations depends also on the Taliban’s ability to guarantee security in the country and counter the rising of several jihadist groups.

The absence of security assurances, coupled with escalating geopolitical risk, could intensify Tehran’s scepticism regarding the Taliban’s leadership and cooperation with Kabul. This, in turn, may hinder efforts to foster trade and economic partnerships.

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