Executive Summary
The targeted assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026, during the joint US-Israeli attack in Tehran, has ended the longest-serving leadership era in the history of the Islamic Republic.
The current situation has precipitated an urgent and systemic crisis, causing the establishment of a provisional Leadership Council in Tehran to avert administrative dissolution. Concurrently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has begun a substantial retaliatory operation, targeting significant civilian and military assets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations.
The region is at a critical juncture, with the Iranian clerical establishment’s survival contingent upon its capacity for power projection via proxies and missile systems, notwithstanding internal dissent evident in public celebrations within Iranian cities. The closure of regional airspace and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz represent a direct assault on global energy security and international trade.
Key Takeaways
- Joint US-Israeli attacks in Tehran caused the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and high-ranking figures in the Islamic Republic.
- Tehran’s shift toward “Total Deterrence” involves the direct targeting of regional third-party states, specifically the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, to raise the geopolitical cost of US-Israeli military actions.
- Sustained maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the paralysis of the Dubai and Abu Dhabi aviation hubs, poses an existential threat to the current global economic order.
Background Information
Tehran confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, 28 February 2026. Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution prescribes the immediate establishment of a Leadership Council to assume the Rahbar’s responsibilities, dictating the internal governance of the Islamic Republic of Iran amidst this exceptional power vacuum. This legal mechanism seeks to prevent administrative collapse.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Chief Justice, and a representative from the Guardian Council established a provisional council amidst the ongoing conflict between the Islamic Republic and the United States and Israel, following military attacks and strikes by both nations on Tehran and military installations nationwide.
The military escalation follows years of stalled nuclear negotiations and increasing Western concerns regarding Tehran’s enrichment activities. In the 24-hour period following the US-Israeli strikes, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched 137 missiles and deployed 209 drones targeting the United Arab Emirates, which led to property damage near The Palm and the Burj Al Arab.
Despite the UAE Ministry of Defence reporting successful interception rates, the consequences for civilian infrastructure, including the subsequent airport closures in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, have resulted in the paralysis of regional aviation. In addition, analogous attacks targeting Qatar have led to eight casualties, eliciting a strong denouncement from the UN Secretary-General against the initial US-Israeli attacks and the Iranian retaliation.
The strategic role of GCC-US security cooperation, which Tehran views as a threat because of the presence of US military bases, exacerbates geopolitical friction. In response to the US-Israeli attacks, the IRGC Navy has formally issued warnings against maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively weaponising one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the attempted raid on the US Embassy in Baghdad by local protesters because of Khamenei’s death, suggest a possible activation of the “Axis of Resistance” to strike back at Western interests throughout the Middle East.
Scenarios Riks Assessment
Scenario 1: Institutional Preservation via Martyrdom and Proxy Escalation
The Iranian government describes the passing of Khamenei as a unifying event of “martyrdom.” Secretary of the National Security Council Ali Larijani has moved with significant speed to establish the Leadership Council, ensuring that President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Judiciary Chief occupy visible roles of authority. The regime aims to quell internal opposition and rally its regional allies by portraying the US-Israeli strikes as an attack on both religion and the government.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq might increase their “grey zone” operations. The purpose is to illustrate that the assassination of a sole leader does not represent the eradication of the Islamic Republic’s core beliefs or its military influence. The scenario shows a protracted war of attrition, where Iran will leverage its military capabilities and proxy militias to retaliate against the West via continuous, low-intensity kinetic engagements.
Scenario 2: Regional Economic Paralysis and GCC Military or Diplomatic Intervention
The most significant danger to the global community is the deliberate destruction of the GCC’s economic systems. By striking Dubai and Doha, Tehran is sending a message that no state hosting US military assets is immune to the consequences of Operation Epic Fury. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would take a major chunk of the global daily oil and gas supply off the market, resulting in a worldwide depression.
This situation examines whether GCC countries, usually reluctant to get involved in direct fighting, might be compelled into a war of defence. Should the UAE or Qatar deem US protection inadequate against missile attacks on their landmarks, they might pursue an independent peace agreement or start their own retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile launch sites.
This escalation would dramatically increase regional geopolitical risk, possibly drawing in Russian or Chinese interests concerned with safeguarding their energy investments.
Scenario 3: Fragmentation and Internal Destabilisation
Removing the top leader might cause the regime’s unity to fall apart as Donald Trump advocated. Reports of celebrations in various Iranian cities suggest that a part of the urban population sees the airstrikes as a chance for political freedom.
If the IRGC leadership becomes embroiled in a succession struggle between hardliners and pragmatists, its ability to suppress domestic protests may diminish. Although the command structure is currently unchanged, the departure of over forty high-ranking officials has resulted in a significant and difficult-to-bridge talent shortage.
If the US and Israel persist in targeting secondary leadership nodes, the probability of a systemic collapse escalates. Should this occur, the Iranian state might break apart into warring territories, potentially sparking a civil war that would involve nearby nations and generate a significant refugee situation.
Implications
- Global Energy Volatility: The threat to the Strait of Hormuz will trigger an immediate surge in Brent crude prices, affecting heating and transport costs across Europe and Asia.
- Radicalisation of the Axis of Resistance: Proxy groups will likely view the assassination as a “red line,” leading to unrestricted warfare against US naval assets in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean and Israel.
- Aviation Hub Collapse: The long-term suspension of flights through Dubai and Abu Dhabi will sever the primary transit link between the West and the Indo-Pacific region.
- Domestic Iranian Purges: The interim Leadership Council will probably initiate a series of internal purges to identify and eliminate “infiltrators” blamed for providing the intelligence used in the strikes.
- Diplomatic Realignment: European and regional powers may distance themselves from Washington to avoid becoming collateral damage in the ongoing Iranian retaliatory campaign.
Conclusion
The death of Ali Khamenei represents the end of a geopolitical chapter and the start of a time marked by extreme unpredictability.
Tehran has shown it has the resolve and the capability to launch attacks outside its territory, aiming at vital economic interests in the Persian Gulf. Although the United States and Israel eliminated a significant opponent, the ensuing security void and the IRGC’s destructive response have resulted in a scenario where the threats to international stability might eclipse the tactical advantages gained from Khamenei’s assassination.
Over the next 72 hours, the major concern is whether Iran’s leadership can maintain authority and overcome any internal attempt of destabilisation or protest, or if the region is on the brink of a widespread, unmanageable conflict.
Last update: Sunday, 1 March 2026 – Time: 08.30 am CET
