Executive Summary
The targeted assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026, during the joint US-Israeli attack in Tehran, has ended the longest-serving leadership era in the history of the Islamic Republic.
The current situation has precipitated an urgent and systemic crisis, causing the establishment of a provisional Leadership Council in Tehran to avert administrative dissolution. Concurrently, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has begun a substantial retaliatory operation, targeting significant civilian and military assets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations.
The region is at a critical juncture, with the Iranian clerical establishment’s survival contingent upon its capacity for power projection via proxies and missile systems, notwithstanding internal dissent evident in public celebrations within Iranian cities. The closure of regional airspace and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz represent a direct assault on global energy security and international trade.
Key Takeaways
- Joint US-Israeli attacks in Tehran caused the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and high-ranking figures in the Islamic Republic.
- Tehran’s shift toward “Total Deterrence” involves the direct targeting of regional third-party states, specifically the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, to raise the geopolitical cost of US-Israeli military actions.
- Sustained maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the paralysis of the Dubai and Abu Dhabi aviation hubs, poses an existential threat to the current global economic order.
Background Information
Tehran confirmed the death ofSupreme Leader Ali Khameneion Saturday, 28 February 2026.Article 111 of the Iranian Constitutionprescribes the immediate establishment of a Leadership Council to assume theRahbar’s responsibilities, dictating the internal governance of the Islamic Republic of Iran amidst this exceptional power vacuum. This legal mechanism seeks toprevent administrative collapse.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Chief Justice,and a representative from theGuardian Councilestablished a provisional council amidst the ongoing conflict between the Islamic Republic and theUnited StatesandIsrael,following military attacks and strikes by both nationson Tehran and military installations nationwide.
The military escalation follows years ofstalled nuclear negotiationsand increasing Western concerns regarding Tehran’s enrichment activities. In the 24-hour period following the US-Israeli strikes, theIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC) launched 137 missiles and deployed 209 drones targeting theUnited Arab Emirates, which led to property damage near The Palm and the Burj Al Arab.
Despite theUAE Ministry of Defencereporting successful interception rates, the consequences for civilianinfrastructure, including the subsequent airport closures in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, have resulted in the paralysis of regional aviation. In addition, analogous attacks targetingQatarhave led to eight casualties, eliciting a strongdenouncementfrom theUN Secretary-Generalagainst the initial US-Israeli attacks and the Iranian retaliation.
The strategic role ofGCC-US security cooperation, which Tehran views as a threat because of the presence of US military bases, exacerbates geopolitical friction. In response to the US-Israeli attacks, theIRGC Navyhas formally issued warnings against maritime transit through theStrait of Hormuz, effectively weaponising one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the attempted raid on theUS Embassy in Baghdadby localprotestersbecause of Khamenei’s death, suggest a possible activation of the “Axis of Resistance” to strike back at Western interests throughout the Middle East.
Scenarios Riks Assessment
Scenario 1: Institutional Preservation via Martyrdom and Proxy Escalation
The Iranian government describes the passing of Khamenei as a unifying event of “martyrdom.” Secretary of the National Security CouncilAli Larijanihas moved with significant speed to establish theLeadership Council, ensuring that President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Judiciary Chief occupy visible roles of authority. The regime aims to quell internal opposition and rally its regional allies by portraying the US-Israeli strikes as an attack on both religion and the government.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraqmight increase their “grey zone” operations. The purpose is to illustrate that the assassination of a sole leader does not represent the eradication of the Islamic Republic’s core beliefs or its military influence. The scenario shows a protracted war of attrition, where Iran will leverage its military capabilities and proxy militias to retaliate against the West via continuous, low-intensity kinetic engagements.
Scenario 2: Regional Economic Paralysis and GCC Military or Diplomatic Intervention
The most significant danger to the global community is the deliberate destruction of the GCC’s economic systems. By striking Dubai and Doha, Tehran is sending a message that no state hosting US military assets is immune to the consequences of Operation Epic Fury. The closure of theStrait of Hormuzwould take a major chunk of the global dailyoil and gas supply off the market, resulting in a worldwide depression.
This situation examines whetherGCC countries, usually reluctant to get involved in direct fighting, might be compelled into a war of defence. Should the UAE or Qatar deem US protection inadequate against missile attacks on their landmarks, they might pursue an independent peace agreement or start their own retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile launch sites.
This escalation would dramatically increaseregional geopolitical risk, possibly drawing in Russian or Chinese interests concerned with safeguarding their energy investments.
Scenario 3: Fragmentation and Internal Destabilisation
Removing the top leader might cause the regime’s unity to fall apart as Donald Trump advocated. Reports of celebrations in various Iranian cities suggest that a part of the urban population sees the airstrikes as a chance for political freedom.
If the IRGC leadership becomes embroiled in a succession struggle between hardliners and pragmatists, its ability to suppress domestic protests may diminish. Although the command structure is currently unchanged, the departure of over forty high-ranking officials has resulted in a significant and difficult-to-bridge talent shortage.
If the US and Israel persist in targeting secondary leadership nodes, the probability of asystemic collapseescalates. Should this occur, the Iranian state might break apart into warring territories, potentially sparking a civil war that would involve nearby nations and generate a significant refugee situation.
Implications
- Global Energy Volatility:The threat to the Strait of Hormuz will trigger an immediate surge in Brent crude prices, affecting heating and transport costs across Europe and Asia.
- Radicalisation of the Axis of Resistance:Proxy groups will likely view the assassination as a “red line,” leading to unrestricted warfare against US naval assets in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean and Israel.
- Aviation Hub Collapse:The long-term suspension of flights through Dubai and Abu Dhabi will sever the primary transit link between the West and the Indo-Pacific region.
- Domestic Iranian Purges:The interim Leadership Council will probably initiate a series of internal purges to identify and eliminate “infiltrators” blamed for providing the intelligence used in the strikes.
- Diplomatic Realignment:European and regional powers may distance themselves from Washington to avoid becoming collateral damage in the ongoing Iranian retaliatory campaign.
Conclusion
The death of Ali Khamenei represents theend of a geopolitical chapterand the start of a time marked by extreme unpredictability.
Tehran has shown it has the resolve and the capability to launch attacks outside its territory, aiming at vital economic interests in the Persian Gulf. Although the United States and Israel eliminated a significant opponent, the ensuing security void and the IRGC’s destructive response have resulted in a scenario wherethe threats to international stability might eclipse the tactical advantages gained from Khamenei’s assassination.
Over the next 72 hours, the major concern is whether Iran’s leadership can maintain authority and overcome any internal attempt of destabilisation or protest, or if the region is on the brink of a widespread, unmanageable conflict.
Last update: Sunday, 1 March 2026 – Time: 08.30 am CET
