Executive Summary

This report examines the Kyrgyzstan’s economic development following the adoption of its National Development Programme until 2030.

Bishkek has introduced ambitious growth targets, including a doubling of GDP and deep structural reforms across industry, logistics, agriculture, tourism, and green energy.

The goal of these measures is to transition the economy from dependence on raw materials and external funding to a more diverse and domestically led growth model. This program will test the state’s ability to implement coordinated policies despite ongoing institutional, political, and external challenges.

Careful monitoring is crucial for evaluating the program’s advancement and identifying potential risks to both macroeconomic and political stability.

Key Takeaways

1. Bishkek targets a GDP increase to $30 billion by 2030, driven by industrialisation, green energy, and regional logistics development.
2. Kyrgyzstan plans significant infrastructure investments to position the country as a regional transit hub and reduce import dependency.
3. External debt management, political stability, and diversification away from gold exports and remittances remain critical to long-term resilience.

Macroeconomic Overview

On June 11, 2025, the Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov signed the Decree “On the National Development Program of the Kyrgyz Republic until 2030”, which illustrated the strategy and measures to ensure further dynamic and comprehensive development of the country.

In a strategic position in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, since its independence after the fall of the Soviet Union, has faced several challenges because of the country’s imperatives and constraints. As a result, this Central Asian nation provides investors with both promising opportunities and persistent challenges. Its rich metal resources, burgeoning tourism sector, and strategic location along the historic Silk Road are attractive to potential investors.

Bishkek’s economic growth is crucial to attract investors and secure funding for infrastructure development. Economically, Kyrgyzstan’s nominal GDP in 2024 was $17.5 billion, and its GDP per capita was approximately $2,397. The government has set a target to nearly double GDP to at least $30 billion by 2030, aiming for an average annual real growth rate of 8%. The program focuses on strengthening macroeconomic stability with industrial expansion and investment-driven growth, despite the absence of specified inflation data.

Foreign debt remains moderate, with reserves sufficient to cover 4.7 months of imports. The government seeks to cap foreign debt at 60% of GDP by 2030. The government targets a minimum 20% investment-to-GDP ratio, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of the development agenda. Bishkek projects that unemployment will decline to a maximum of 5%.

The mobilisation of capital for infrastructure, industrial parks, and green energy projects indirectly addresses the financial sector’s role. State-led development priorities, rather than liberal market expansion, should guide financial markets.

Sector-Specific Analysis

• Industrial Sector. Doubling industrial output by 2030 is a primary industrialisation objective. The strategy emphasises reducing import dependence, increasing domestic production, and establishing at least five regional techno parks. The government plans to replace traditional extractive reliance with high-value manufacturing chains, shifting the economy towards value-added production.
• Logistics and Transport. Bishkek aims to capitalise on its geographic position by transforming into a regional logistics hub. Key projects include the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the North-South highway. The government aims to boost annual rail freight to 15 million tonnes and build over one million square meters of warehouse and logistics space. Upgrades to aviation infrastructure will support expanded domestic and international connectivity.
• Agriculture. The national strategy projects a 30% increase in agricultural production, coupled with a doubling of processing capabilities. Irrigation modernisation, including 5,000 kilometres of canals and livestock sector improvements, are central to this objective. Food security and export competitiveness are both underlying motivations for these measures.
• Tourism. According to the strategy, the tourism sector should contribute 7% to GDP by 2030, with improvements in safety, service quality, and international competitiveness. The target is to elevate Kyrgyzstan into the top 50 of global tourism competitiveness rankings.
• Energy. Renewable energy expansion is a cornerstone of the programme, aiming for 92% of electricity generation from green sources, primarily small and medium hydroelectric stations. The plan is for installed capacity to provide a guaranteed surplus of 550–700 MW, meeting both domestic and industrial requirements.

Geopolitical and Strategic Impact

Bishkek’s geopolitical imperatives intertwine with its economic modernisation. Industrial and infrastructure expansion reduces reliance on imports and external shocks, particularly from fluctuating gold prices and remittance flows.

Kyrgyzstan’s focus on improving its transport routes increases its importance in regional trade, strengthening relationships with China, Uzbekistan, and aligning with Russia’s Eurasian integration goals.

President Japarov’s centralised government, coupled with limitations of civil society and independent organisations, creates governance concerns that could discourage some international investors. While the border situation, particularly concerning Tajikistan, persists as a factor, recent demarcation agreements have lessened immediate pressures.

Domestic stability remains the security apparatus’s top priority, restricting geopolitical options because of a lack of diversified international partnerships. The continued reliance on Russia and China for economic and security support underscores the strategic balancing act facing Bishkek’s leadership.

Monitoring Brief: Key Indicators for Ongoing Assessment

Conclusion

Kyrgyzstan’s National Development Programme 2030 is an ambitious, state-led plan for economic transformation. The goals of industrialisation, infrastructure modernisation, and energy self-sufficiency, if realised, could reduce economic vulnerabilities and elevate national living standards.

External dependencies, political centralisation, and weak institutions present significant risks that demand careful handling. To ensure sustainable progress, Bishkek must maintain a focus on policy coherence, fiscal prudence, investor confidence, and regional stability.