Executive Summary

By the end of May, Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, will visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The visit, postponed from April because of the death of Pope Francis, marks a formal shift in Italy’s approach to Central Asia.

Rome is seeking to expand its influence in the region through direct political engagement, security cooperation, and targeted economic partnerships. The trip will aim to build on recent EU–Central Asia coordination and position Italy as a serious actor in regional affairs.

Key Takeaways

1. The visit confirms Rome is pursuing deeper ties with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
2. Giorgia Meloni’s visit is fundamental to building diplomatic capital, opening new economic channels, and supporting military collaboration.
3. The Italian government is treating the visit as a strategic opportunity to shape EU influence in Central Asia and offset pressure from Russia and China.

Information Context

According to local sources, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will officially visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on May 28-29, 2025. Because of the Pope’s death, the Giorgia Meloni postponed their planned April 2025 visit, though diplomatic efforts and claims from Central Asian sources suggested a visit before the end of May.

Geopolitical Analysis

• Italy’s engagement in Kazakhstan is moving beyond energy. Defense cooperation is now a priority. Italian and Kazakh officials are discussing joint training programs, cybersecurity exchanges, and possible co-production of military hardware. These efforts give Italy a security presence in the region and reduce Astana’s dependence on Russia and China.
• Rome sees Uzbekistan as a gateway to regional markets and a base for industrial cooperation. Italian Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are entering the Uzbek market, focusing on textile machinery, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing. Italian technical support is being used to back Tashkent’s push for industrial reform. Giorgia Meloni’s visit will aim to restore bilateral trade, which fell to $68.1 million in early 2025—a 15.4% drop from the previous year. Rome views Tashkent as a reliable partner. High-level visits in 2023, including President Mattarella’s trip to Uzbekistan, established political trust. The upcoming visit will aim to convert that trust into stable commercial and institutional ties.

Additional Information

• Italy will launch a training programmed for junior diplomats from Central Asia. The goal is to shape early-career networks and reinforce Italy’s political visibility.
• Rome is also pushing connectivity, including digital infrastructure and regional transport. These efforts serve EU goals on regional integration and resilience.

Risk Scenario

1. Regional Competition: Italy is acting to secure a foothold in Central Asia before Russian and Chinese positions become more entrenched.
2. Military Partnerships: Kazakh-Italian defence discussions are notable. NATO-aligned training and military production would shift regional military balances.
3. Commercial Positioning: Rome is using Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and energy firms as the first movers. The approach is tactical, focused on sectors with fast deployment potential.
4. Diplomatic Access: The youth diplomacy initiative will increase Italian reach inside Central Asian bureaucracies over the long term.

Monitoring Trend

1. Finalisation of defence cooperation terms with Kazakhstan.
2. Specific investment commitments in Uzbekistan during the visit.
3. Reactions from Russian and Chinese diplomatic and non official channels.

Assessment

Meloni’s visit marks a realignment in Italy’s Central Asia policy. The country is no longer focusing only on energy contracts, but is expanding into defence, industrial trade, and diplomacy. This approach mirrors EU interests, but Italy shapes it with national priorities. Italy’s plan is simple: gain an early advantage in the disputed territory and secure partnerships before rival powers consolidate their control.

Giorgia Meloni’s visit carries tactical value for both Rome and Brussels. Italian defence cooperation in Kazakhstan and industrial ties with Uzbekistan may shift the regional balance in subtle but meaningful ways. Tracking post-visit agreements and shifts in diplomatic tone from Moscow and Beijing will be essential.