In an era of rising security threats, the ability to combine real-time event monitoring with open-source intelligence (OSINT) collection is paramount. This approach enhances situational awareness across multiple sectors, including geopolitics, intelligence analysis, travel security, and risk management. Effective intelligence solutions must integrate structured data analysis with qualitative insights to provide a comprehensive understanding of emerging threats and geopolitical shifts.
To explore the critical role of intelligence and geopolitics in contemporary security environments, SpecialEurasia met with Max Taylor, the Intelligence Manager at Intelligence Fusion. Besides overseeing the operational team responsible for populating their threat intelligence platform and incident API, Max is a specialist in Central Asia and the Middle East, producing in-depth assessments informed by extensive academic research. His expertise in NATO operations in Afghanistan and the interplay between politics, strategy, and tactics provides valuable insights into the region’s complex security landscape.
In this interview, Max discusses the role of intelligence solutions in modern threat monitoring, his responsibilities in managing intelligence teams, and his assessment of the geopolitical dynamics shaping Central Asia.
Intelligence Fusion emphasises the integration of real-time event monitoring with OSINT. How does this approach enhance situational awareness, and what are the key challenges in implementing it effectively?
“The combination of the real time data and the historical OSINT data gives our users an all round picture of the country or area they are focusing on. The real time data can keep people up to date as events happen, and as you can imagine, this allows people to make decisions on the fly. The historical data, all gathered from open sources, can then provide a historical context for the real time data. I have found from experience that real time data can at times be blown out of proportion when viewed outside of the context of historic data (or even the other way around, when major events are overlooked because their significance is not understood.) The historical OSINT data allows us to provide some context to the real time data, and helps users understand the key questions of ‘why am I telling you about this?’ or ‘So what?’
Gathering the data comes with difficulties, in that gathering historic data can be time consuming, and does not, by default, compliment focusing on gathering real time incident data. This is where my role comes in, and I spend a lot of my time directing our gathering activity to make sure we are focusing on the right areas for our users at the right time. I would also say understanding the data takes a huge amount of knowledge and understanding of local dynamics. In many cases, as analysts, we are outsiders looking in on a situation. With this in mind, in takes a long time to build knowledge and build an understanding of the countries we cover. This takes some effort, and it is a learning process which can’t be rushed”.
As an Intelligence Manager, you oversee operations and reporting. What are the core responsibilities in managing intelligence teams, and how do you ensure the accuracy and relevance of intelligence outputs?
“My role is quite dynamic, but I would say my main responsibility is to make sure we, as a team, are answering questions that clients are actually asking. For example, it is all well and good if we develop a strong knowledge of events in one area, but if that doesn’t impact the consumer in any way, then I haven’t assigned resources correctly. So with this in mind, I spend a lot of time looking at where we are focusing, and what are we focusing on. I find myself asking myself questions such as ‘are we focusing too much on the nitty gritty here? Are our sources too one sided? Or are we missing anything? By doing this we can be proactive and not be playing catch up all the time”.
Central Asia is a region of strategic significance with complex security dynamics. What are the primary geopolitical and security challenges currently shaping the region?
“Whilst each Central Asian state has their own unique security concerns, which can at times be overlooked, I do believe that there are several issues which impact the region as a whole. I would argue that some of the key regional issues are:
- Water security, particularly regarding water management projects carried out by the Afghan Taliban on the Afghan side of the shared regional border.
- The ongoing search for new trade partners and trade routes. The region is of course landlocked, and the respective Central Asian states’ access to foreign markets is heavily impacted by geopolitical affairs in surrounding regions.
- Balancing the interests of their main partners (China and Russia) with their push for new partners. As part of this, Central Asian states have been wary of becoming targeted by US and EU sanctions whilst maintaining trade with their key partners in Russia and China.”
Given the evolving nature of security threats in Central Asia, what intelligence methodologies or tools are most effective in monitoring and assessing risks?
“This is a tough question, as I do not think there is a direct answer. My approach has always been more qualitative than quantitative, and I try to spend as much time as possible reading local media, and reading about local issues in each country in the region. I have always made a conscious effort to try and avoid looking at the Central Asia region as a broad region first, and individual countries second. Instead, I try to focus on a local level first approach. Gathering information as an open source analyst covering Central Asia is naturally challenging because of restricted media, so I also aim to avoid becoming too reliant on data for the region, and use data as a guiderail, which when combined with diligent research on specific local issues, can be a powerful analytical tool.
Over time, if an analyst takes a careful and thoughtful approach to learning about a region, they can start to develop a respectable knowledge. This takes a long time, but with this long-curated knowledge base, they can then start to see the broader geopolitical events in a more local context. Obviously, as outsiders looking in, there is only so much local context we can get, so it is important to both understand where our knowledge base is weaker, but also understand our strengths, and how this may impact the analysis we produce.
To make a long story short, I believe there is no replacement for patient learning over time, and making a prolonged, concentrated effort to try and get to grips with the ‘unknown unknowns’ that exist in every region.”
Looking ahead, how do you see the intelligence landscape developing, both in terms of methodology and the role of intelligence firms, like Intelligence Fusion?
“The amount of information available to open source analysts at private firms just seems to be doubling in size every day, so I think a major challenge for all going forwards will be how to do we handle this. This is not strictly speaking a new challenge for intelligence professionals, and there have been countless cases in history where analysts had the information, but not necessarily the focus or direction needed to get all the pieces to the puzzle. In today’s intelligence world, people seem to moving towards technological innovations to help process the wealth of information available and gain insights from it. This is great, and I suspect this will create a situation where people just cannot afford to get left behind. With this said, it is just as important as ever to retain the timeless intelligence principles and not allow the push for innovation to weaken our intelligence products. What I mean by this is there is still a place for diligent, hard working analysis teams who can put in the time to fully understand the regions and topics they cover. So, to provide a truly valuable product to our clients, we must find a way to balance the two, and take the strengths of both with us as we go forwards.”
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 52 Issue 8
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
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