Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 52 Issue 4
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

Executive Summary

Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly active in Afghanistan, leveraging humanitarian, agricultural, and diplomatic support to secure regional influence. Astana’s participation in initiatives like the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), coupled with Ankara’s expansion through TIKA, is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.

While Kazakh Turkish engagement in Afghanistan offers potential benefits for all the parties involved, it also poses significant risks, such as exposing Ankara and Astana to Russia and China’s retaliation.

 This report assesses the broader implications of these activities and their potential impact on Afghanistan’s stability and regional security dynamics.

Key Points

• Kazakhstan and Turkey are advancing their influence in Afghanistan through agricultural support and humanitarian initiatives.
• Astana might reduce dependence on Moscow and Beijing by strengthening ties with Ankara and regional organisations like CICA and IOFS.
• Turkey’s involvement in Afghanistan reflects its broader strategy to counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence in Central Asia.
• Kazakhstan and Turkey’s increasing involvement in Afghanistan could cause regional tension, especially with Russia and China, but it may also improve Afghanistan’s economic and diplomatic relations with Central Asia.

Background Information

On March 7^th, 2025, officials held the opening ceremony for the “Promoting wheat cultivation for sustainable development in Central Afghanistan” program in Central Afghanistan. The initiative, supported by Kazakhstan, Turkey, the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), and other international entities, delivered humanitarian aid to 300 farmers in Logar Province. The aid comprised 15 tonnes of high-quality wheat seeds, fertilisers, and urea to boost soil productivity. Afghan officials expressed gratitude for the help, urging continued support as seeds, agricultural equipment, and irrigation systems.

Astana’s leading role in the IOFS initiative has strengthened its position as a key player in Afghan agricultural reconstruction. The country’s involvement in such initiatives also aligns with its broader geopolitical strategy to establish itself as a stabilising force in Central Asia, lessening its reliance on Russia and China.

Simultaneously, Ankara has used its agency, TIKA, to enhance its diplomatic footprint by extending its agricultural and humanitarian aid efforts to Afghanistan, reflecting its wider ambitions in Central Asia and the AfPak region.

Scenario Analysis

The increased influence of Kazakhstan and Turkey in Afghanistan creates opportunities and challenges for everyone. Astana, traditionally dependent on Russia and China for military, economic, and political support, seeks to diversify its alliances.

By partnering with Ankara and engaging in initiatives like the IOFS and CICA, Astana aims to reduce its reliance on Moscow and Beijing, positioning itself as a key player in Central Asia. This change may result a more balanced geopolitical landscape, encouraging regional collaboration and economic growth.

Turkey has long sought to expand its influence in Central Asia and the AfPak region. Ankara’s involvement in Afghanistan, particularly in humanitarian aid and agriculture, aims to offset Moscow’s and Beijing’s influence. This fits Turkey’s wider goals in the Organisation of Turkic States and its strategic aim of becoming a leading player in the Turkic world.

Increased Turkish involvement in the region might benefit Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics; however, it could also cause diplomatic tension with Russia and China, given their long-standing regional influence.

The collaboration between Kazakhstan and Turkey in Afghanistan enhances the potential for regional integration and stability. However, Russia might perceive Kazakhstan’s efforts to diversify its alliances as a challenge to its long-held influence in Central Asia. Similarly, China, which heavily invests in Kazakhstan through the Belt and Road Initiative, might view Astana’s increased ties with Ankara as a competing force in the region.

Risk Assessment

1. Geopolitical Tensions with Russia. Kazakhstan’s increased partnership with Turkey could strain its relations with Russia. As a key member of the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union, Astana has long relied on Russian support for its security and economic needs. If Kazakhstan aligns too closely with Turkey, Russia might retaliate politically, given Kazakhstan’s sizable Russian population and their shared border. This could lead to internal instability and exacerbate existing tensions, as seen during the January 2022 protests, which were quelled with CSTO support.
2. Economic Dependence on China. Kazakhstan remains deeply intertwined with China, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which funds major infrastructure projects in the country. Although Kazakhstan wants a more diverse foreign policy, lessening its dependence on China could damage its economy. Shifting away from Beijing might hinder Astana’s growth, diminish its importance as a key trade route between Europe and Asia, and create a funding shortfall for crucial infrastructure.
3. Security Risks in Afghanistan. Political volatility and insurgent activity in Afghanistan expose both Kazakhstan and Turkey to security risks. While Turkey’s involvement with TIKA and Kazakhstan’s agricultural support could enhance their influence, it also makes them targets for extremist groups. The Taliban’s unpredictable actions and Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) and other factions in the region pose significant threats to foreign actors, potentially disrupting diplomatic and aid efforts.
4. Diplomatic Fallout with China and Russia. As Astana seeks to expand its geopolitical influence through engagement with Ankara, it risks antagonising both Moscow and Beijing. The Kremlin might view Kazakhstan’s deepening relationship with Turkey as a challenge to its regional hegemony. China, heavily invested in the Kazakh economic future through the BRI, could view Kazakhstan’s pivot towards Turkey as a threat to its strategic interests. This could lead to diplomatic pressure from both Moscow and Beijing, possibly undermining Kazakhstan’s efforts to pursue a more independent foreign policy.

*Cover picture: Mohammad Agha District, Logar Province, Afghanistan (Credits: US Embassy Kabul AfghanistanS.K. Vemmer/US Department of State, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

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