Persian Files ISSN 2975-0598 Volume 30 Issue 2
Author: Silvia Boltuc
Executive Summary
On February 4th, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This policy directive seeks to deny Iran all paths to gaining a nuclear weapon, counter its asymmetric and conventional weapons development, neutralise its regional influence, and cripple its economy through intensified sanctions.
The NSPM mandates the US Treasury to impose stringent economic restrictions, while the Secretary of State is directed to coordinate international sanctions aimed at dismantling Iran’s global economic reach. Additionally, law enforcement agencies will pursue Iranian-backed networks operating within the United States.
The goal is to reduce Iran’s oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to zero by putting pressure on major buyers such as China, sanctioning ships, marine insurance companies, and third parties that cooperate with Iran, blocking Iran’s access to the international banking system and targeting unofficial currency exchange networks, sanctioning Iranian-affiliated groups in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon.
The reimplementation of this approach occurs as the Middle East is embroiled in multiple crises, including the ongoing war in Gaza, heightened Israeli-Iranian hostilities, and the evolving political dynamics surrounding Saudi Arabia’s potential accession to the Abraham Accords.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, one of Trump’s key allies, has welcomed the return to maximum pressure, aligning it with his long-standing objective of reducing Iran’s oil revenues and regional power. Notably, the US President revived the maximum pressure policy one day after Netanyahu’s visit to Washington. At the same time, Trump’s broader Middle East strategy involves leveraging Saudi-Israeli cooperation to form a coalition aimed at countering Iran’s influence. Saudi Arabia, however, has set forth a series of demands, including US security guarantees and access to advanced military technology, in exchange for normalising ties with Israel.
While Trump’s renewed maximum pressure strategy mirrors his first-term policies, significant obstacles remain. Iran has demonstrated resilience in circumventing sanctions by strengthening its economic ties with regional player. Furthermore, the European Union remains reluctant to fully align with Washington’s aggressive stance. The economic repercussions of renewed sanctions could exacerbate global oil price volatility, while Tehran’s potential countermeasures may include further nuclear enrichment and increased support for regional militias, heightening the risk of military confrontations.
Information Context
Trump’s reinstated maximum pressure policy against Iran follows a similar approach taken during his first presidency, when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018. The NSPM directs the Treasury Department to impose financial penalties on any entities violating Iran-related sanctions, with the goal of driving Iran’s oil exports to zero. The Attorney General has been tasked with investigating and prosecuting Iranian-backed networks operating in the US to dismantle Iran’s influence on American soil.
This move coincides with Netanyahu’s first official visit to Washington under Trump’s second presidency, marking the first visit of a foreign leader under the new administration. Netanyahu has historically advocated for isolating Iran economically and militarily, and he now finds himself under domestic pressure to assert Israeli dominance following the recent resignation of a far-right minister from his coalition government. The Israeli leader also seeks to expand military operations in Syria and Lebanon, reinforcing the broader anti-Iran coalition.
Saudi Arabia, a key regional player, remains cautiously open to normalisation with Israel, but Riyadh might set some conditions like access to F-35 fighter jets, furniture of military equipment such as the THAAD missile defence systems to intercept possible Iranian missiles and a US security guarantee akin to NATO’s Article 5.
Trump, who previously facilitated record-breaking arms sales to Saudi Arabia, is likely to accommodate these demands, although congressional resistance may pose obstacles. Saudi Arabia’s previous hesitancy to formalise ties with Israel stemmed from concerns over domestic and regional backlash, yet Trump’s strategic approach to securing Riyadh’s cooperation may alter the kingdom’s calculations. Meanwhile, Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, following China’s diplomatic intervention, demonstrates Riyadh’s strategic diversification beyond US dependence.
Geopolitical Scenario
Trump’s aggressive policy towards Iran signals renewed US commitment to its traditional Middle Eastern partners but also risks intensifying conflicts. Netanyahu’s stance remains uncompromising, advocating for the continued containment of Iran and military assertiveness in Lebanon and Syria. Saudi Arabia, while historically aligned with US interests, has recalibrated its approach, ensuring that it will not be dragged into hostilities between Israel and Iran. The kingdom has secured guarantees from Tehran that it will remain uninvolved in an Israel-Iran conflict, reciprocating by prohibiting Israeli or US strikes from being launched from its airspace.
Trump’s foreign policy seeks to strengthen Israel’s position while bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords. However, Saudi demands for full security guarantees, advanced military technology, and leniency on human rights issues pose challenges. The kingdom is wary of another scenario like 2019, when Houthi-claimed attacks on its oil infrastructure exposed its vulnerability without US intervention. This experience pushed Riyadh towards engaging with Iran diplomatically, leading to the 2023 peace agreement brokered by China.
Trump’s NSPM and its focus on economic warfare against Iran raise further concerns regarding global energy stability. With Iran’s oil exports targeted for elimination, China and Russia—Tehran’s primary economic lifelines—are expected to resist compliance with US sanctions. Previous attempts at isolating Iran economically had limited success, as Tehran adapted through alternative trade networks and deeper ties with non-Western partners. The revival of maximum pressure may once again force Iran to exert influence through proxy forces and strengthen trade through exchange in local currency or the use of cryptocurrencies.
The European Union, while critical of Iran’s nuclear activities, is hesitant to fully embrace Trump’s maximum pressure approach because of concerns over regional instability and economic repercussions.
Saudi Arabia’s stance is crucial in determining the future of Middle Eastern alliances. While Bin Salman sees strategic benefits in normalising ties with Israel, he must balance domestic opposition and regional skepticism. However, Saudi leaders demand ironclad security commitments from Washington before moving forward. The prospect of an Arab-Israeli security alliance could reshape the regional balance of power but also provoke an aggressive response from Tehran.
Trump’s approach also carries economic implications. The attempt to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero may contribute to global energy price volatility. The economic burden of renewed tensions will not be limited to Iran; global markets may experience price shocks and supply chain disruptions.
Conclusions
Trump’s policy shift marks a decisive return to the confrontational stance of his first term. While it aligns with Israel’s objectives and seeks to push Saudi Arabia into further normalisation, it also risks destabilising the region. Washington’s ultimate goal seems to be the weakening of the Iranian Republic to the point of collapse.
Saudi Arabia’s balancing act between the US and Iran presents a challenge to Washington’s strategy. The kingdom’s refusal to allow Israeli access to its airspace during strikes on Iranian targets in October 2024 signals its commitment to avoiding a regional conflict.
While Trump has previously expressed a willingness to negotiate without preconditions, his administration’s hardline approach may complicate diplomatic openings. The potential formation of an Arab-Israeli security alliance should be weighed against the likelihood of provoking Iranian countermeasures, which could destabilise the region further.
Iran has repeatedly showcased its military capabilities this year; President Trump’s policy, amongst other objectives, seeks to curtail the advancement of Iranian ballistic missiles. Despite being labeled as failures by the international press due to the lack of casualties, Iran’s missile strikes on Israel were, in reality, deliberate showcases of its military strength. Facing growing pressure, Tehran is likely to bolster its resilience by securing supplies from non-aligned nations and expanding its domestic arms production.
Notably, Iran has strengthened its strategic position with a major defence agreement with Moscow, a partner unlikely to cooperate with Washington’s efforts to isolate Tehran.
Regarding the naval blockade on its oil exports, involving what the West calls “ghost ships”, Iran is expected to continue its well-established retaliatory strategy in the Persian Gulf, either by obstructing the Strait of Hormuz or seizing vessels flying the flag of nations it deems hostile.
As per the Axis of Resistance, despite suffering significant losses in leadership and Hezbollah’s apparent disruption of supply lines through Syria, it remains in play. Since the early days of the Islamic Republic—when Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, backed by international powers, launched a surprise attack—Tehran has understood the necessity of securing its borders in a region where it has long been isolated. Whether President Pezeshkian will pursue the reestablishment of a Shia Crescent-style buffer zone remains unclear. While he benefits from the economic ties developed under the Raisi administration with regional players, he no longer has the key architect of the Resistance, a role seemingly filled by Hossein Amir-Abdollahian following General Soleimani.
Arab states, for their part, remain caught in the middle. The Arab League’s response to the crisis in Gaza has been largely symbolic, with many of its members prioritising their relationships with the US and, by extension, Israel. However, shifts in alliances with Russia suggest a more fluid geopolitical landscape, pointing toward an increasingly multipolar Middle East.
Picture: US and Iran flags during the Nuclear negotiations. (Credits: U.S. Department of State, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
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