Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 50 Issue 11
Author: Matteo Meloni
Executive Summary
India has emerged as a pivotal actor in the global geopolitical landscape, leveraging its geographical position, economic growth, and active participation in multilateral organisations.
The country, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s direction, has cultivated a more independent foreign policy, carefully balancing relations with Western nations and Russia while simultaneously expanding its regional influence in the Indo-Pacific.
This report analyses New Delhi’s developing geopolitical positioning, the affects of recent sanctions on Indian entities linked to Russian transactions, and the strategic implications for decision-makers.
Geopolitical Scenario
India is consistently emerging as a crucial actor in today’s geopolitical landscape, especially considering its geographical position, a fast-growing economy, and the role New Delhi plays in the Indo-Pacific scenario.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political actions have deeply shaped the country’s image in more than 10 years of government, making India a central hotspot of the international arena. Since 2014, when the ruling party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) became a majority in the Indian parliament, New Delhi assumed a more active role towards its neighbours — China and Pakistan above all — and organisations such as BRICS+ (recently enlarged to several new countries), The Group of Twenty (G20) hosted by India in 2023, and Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) with Australia, Japan and the United States, whose Leaders’ Summit will occur in the Indian Republic in 2025.
Modi’s government, which has balanced its relations either with Western countries and Russia, positively addressed world players’ interests towards India, especially after the beginning of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. For instance, Narendra Modi met in September 2024 the former U.S. President Joe Biden, and in October of the same year the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The reasons behind India’s standing is the strategic autonomy that characterises New Delhi’s foreign policy. This unique approach finds its roots in the post-colonial reality, when the newly formed republic, founded in 1947, had to deal with the Cold War era, becoming one of the most important leaders of the Non-Aligned Movement, whose principles were agreed upon the Bandung Conference in 1955.
India’s neutral stance during the Cold War has to be understood as the growth of a multicultural community previously governed by a coloniser entity, the United Kingdom, whose politics have hugely affected the Republic’s decisions in terms of future alliances. The country has framed close diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union, refraining from becoming a satellite neither of the Russian government, nor of the U.S. administrations. Following the collapse of the communist block, at the end of 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s, India has found a new global reality where to compete.
Still, New Delhi and Moscow have several agreements in the defence and oil sectors, with the Indians buyers of Russian S-400 air defence systems and prime purchasers of the Moscow’s crude. Because of that, in October 2024, the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned 21 Indian entities, including 19 companies and 2 individuals from India. The Executive Order (EO) 14024 provides a legal framework to sanction individuals and entities that “have directly, indirectly or attempted to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services in support for or on behalf of, or for the benefit of, directly or indirectly, the Government of the Russian Federation”.
Donald Trump’s new Administration in the United States could bring a change to India’s approach, even considering the new sanctions imposed by the Republican White House on Russian oil producers. Nonetheless, India represents a strategic partner for the U.S. Although New Delhi’s relationship with Moscow, the House of Representative of the United States has passed in 2022 a norm aimed at shielding the country from being sanctioned. Despite the Senate’s failure to vote on the India-specific CAATSA waiver, U.S. administrations have pushed for the Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, which both sides call “the defining partnership of the 21st century”.
Why Does It Matter?
India’s historical strategic autonomy positions it uniquely in the current multipolar global order, where power is distributed among several influential actors. New Delhi’s strategic position and foreign policy facilitates its role as an intermediary between competing power blocs, allowing for the cultivation of relationships with Western nations and Russia, and the simultaneous expansion of its influence in multilateral organizations such as BRICS+, the G20, and the United Nations.
Amidst global challenges of climate change, energy security, unresolved conflicts, and sustainable development, India’s might become vital in fostering international cooperation. Its active role in advocating for reforms in the United Nations Security Council and fostering a more fair global order underscores its growing diplomatic weight.
The country’s geostrategic importance lies in its capacity to counterbalance China in the Indo-Pacific. Its geographical position makes it pivotal to ensure maritime security and maintaining open trade routes in one of the world’s most critical waterways. New Delhi’s partnerships under frameworks such as QUAD enable it to reinforce a rules-based order, mitigating the risks of regional power imbalances.
However, India’s economic and military engagement with Russia presents a potential risk of secondary sanctions and the deterioration of relations with Western countries. This dual alignment poses a risk of alienation from either bloc, complicating India’s efforts to maintain equilibrium in its foreign policy.
Globally, the country has become a key actors in addressing issues such as poverty, inequality, and climate change and has enhances its standing as a credible voice for the Global South. By promoting multilateralism and aligning its national interests with broader developmental goals, India can amplify its influence among emerging economies. Nevertheless, its efficacy is contingent upon effectively addressing external constraints, specifically U.S. sanctions resulting from its Russian affiliations, and internal challenges encompassing socio-economic disparities and energy requirements. India’s sustained activism in regional and global forums is critical for fostering stability and cooperation, making it a vital player in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
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