Assessment
The extrajudicial capture of President Nicolás Maduro by United States special operations forces represents a fundamental shift in the global security architecture, signalling a return to high-risk, kinetic regime change as a core instrument of Washington’s foreign policy.
This action challenges established rules regarding the legal protection of world leaders, potentially triggering a chain of uneven reactions from nations seeking to alter the existing global order.
Rather than creating a power vacuum, the removal of Venezuela’s leaders could trigger a drawn-out, multi-sided conflict for control of the Orinoco Belt’s energy resources, which would have a direct impact on China and Russia’s strategic positions and involve US troops and financial resources.
Context
On January 3, 2026, the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve, comprising targeted strikes on military infrastructure in Caracas (notably Fort Tiuna) followed by a Delta Force extraction of Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores. The White House has portrayed the intervention as a law enforcement effort, citing indictments for narco-terrorism and the conversion of Venezuela into a “criminal enterprise” as justification.
The international reaction has followed a predictable, yet intensified, binary. Western allies, including the United Kingdom and France, have largely supported the removal of a ‘dictatorial’ regime while expressing varying degrees of concern regarding the legality of the methods employed. Conversely, the Eurasian Bloc—led by Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran—has condemned the act as ‘armed aggression’ and a flagrant breach of the UN Charter.
The timing is crucial, happening shortly after a significant diplomatic discussion between Maduro and a high-ranking Chinese official, which hints at a US effort to undermine China’s strategic partnerships in the Americas.
Analysis: Impact on Eurasia and International Relations
The US intervention has effectively re-established the Monroe Doctrine in a kinetic form, creating a profound sense of insecurity among Eurasian powers who view Venezuela as a critical outpost.
- Erosion of International Norms. Washington’s actions, which involved sidestepping the UN Security Council and labelling a sovereign nation as a criminal, might have set a precedent that could allow other nations to justify their own interventions without international approval. This ‘criminalisation of sovereignty’ creates a precedent that Moscow and Beijing will likely co-opt to justify their own regional ‘stabilisation’ operations.
- The Eurasian Counter-Alignment. In response, Russia and Iran are likely to deepen their security cooperation. Moscow views the loss of Maduro as a ‘strategic retreat’ that gains in other theatres must balance. We expect Russia to escalate “grey zone” tactics, such as cyberattacks on key infrastructure and maritime aggression, to prove the US is vulnerable.
- Energy Security as a Weapon. China’s past investments in Venezuelan heavy crude oil can come under the unofficial control of the US military. The move from a commercial to a military-influenced energy sector compels Beijing to advance its “Malacca Dilemma” strategies, perceiving its foreign energy facilities as susceptible to US “decapitation” manoeuvres.
Outlook
The Ukraine Conflict. Moscow would view Maduro’s capture as a breach of the last remaining limits on the security of political leaders. This substantially heightens the likelihood of Russian decapitation strikes targeting the Ukrainian leadership in Kyiv. The Kremlin might reason that if the US can remove a head of state via criminal charges, Russia is similarly justified in ‘neutralising’ the ‘extremist’ leadership in Ukraine, leading to a more violent and less predictable phase of the war.
Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific. Beijing will view Operation Absolute Resolve as a demonstration of US military resolve and a disregard for international backlash. This might cause two distinct outcomes:
- Tactical Caution: China may temporarily moderate its rhetoric to avoid a direct kinetic confrontation while its economy remains vulnerable.
- Strategic Acceleration: Beijing is more likely to determine that a preemptive strike is necessary to secure Taiwan before the United States can deploy a comparable regional military presence, interpreting the Venezuela operation as a test run for potential US interventions in the Indo-Pacific.
US-Russia Relations. Diplomatic relations have effectively entered a state of ‘suspended animation’. The probability of a negotiated agreement on European security or arms control is now insignificant. Russia can react by expanding its military presence in the Caribbean through “rotational” deployments to Cuba or Nicaragua, thus generating a reciprocal threat to the US mainland.
US-China Economic Warfare. The capture of Maduro provides Washington with leverage over Beijing’s debt repayments from Caracas. The United States can use its control over Venezuelan oil output to force concessions on trade. In response, China is likely to expedite the de-dollarisation of its energy trade and may implement counter-sanctions against US energy companies operating in the South China Sea.
China’s Oil Imports. In the short term, China faces a significant supply shock. Should the US-led transition engender a domestic insurgency or sabotage of pipelines in Venezuala, China will be obligated to increase its dependence on Iranian and Russian barrels. This reinforces the ‘Eurasian Energy Triangle’, making Beijing more dependent on the very actors the US is seeking to isolate, cementing the anti-Western geopolitical bloc.
Pressure on Iran. Simultaneous to the capture of Maduro and US military operations in Caracas, Tehran is experiencing multiple protests because of economic challenges and the scarcity of primary resources, notably water. United States military action in Venezuela sends a message to the Islamic Republic as well. Consequently, Tehran might augment its military and internal security and alert its military personnel to preempt external pressure or aggression throughout this internal crisis.
Last update: Saturday, January 3, 2025 – Time 19.00 pm CET
