Iran’s Narrowing Window of AI Leadership and Regional Tech Realignments

Iran and AI_SpecialEurasia

Executive Summary

This report analyses the approval of Iran’s National Artificial Intelligence Plan by the Islamic Consultative Assembly on 18 May 2025, outlining the legislative, institutional, and geopolitical dimensions of the initiative.

The report details internal debate over authority, finances, and bureaucracy because of delayed government action. Iran’s AI aspirations are within a regional competition for technological dominance, as highlighted in the report, particularly in reaction to the Untied State’s recent AI collaborations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Key Takeaways

  1. Iran approved a national Artificial Intelligence plan despite internal disputes.
  2. Tehran’s $115 million AI investment aims for regional leadership amid competition from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
  3. Government delays hinder Iran’s AI development and strategic positioning.

Information Background

During the 18 May 2025 public session of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, MPs reviewed the general outline of the National Artificial Intelligence (AI) Plan and approved it with 187 votes in favour, 33 against, and 1 abstention out of 227 representatives present in the open session. The plan was previously approved by the Industries Commission of Parliament. In a short video prepared by Parliament’s technical team shown during the session, the Supreme Leader remarked on the importance and urgency of AI progress.

In light of former President Trump’s recent visit to the Gulf and the series of AI-related agreements signed with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Tehran is accelerating its reform efforts to preserve a strategic leadership role in the Persian Gulf region. As previously reported by SpecialEurasia, the Iranian government has committed $115 million to AI research and aims to position itself as a regional leader in this field.

On February 3, 2025, at the Iran Corridor 2025 conference in the UAE, Iran proposed AI partnerships with Persian Gulf states, leveraging its expertise alongside regional investment and infrastructure. On March 15, 2025, Iran unveiled a prototype of its national AI platform, with a stable version expected within a year.

Tehran’s AI advancements, including military applications such as AI-powered drones and missile guidance, signal a strategic shift toward next-generation warfare capabilities in the region.

As per the 18 May 2025 Parliament session, some government representative opposed the proposed plan, arguing that it needs investments, which implies, according to the Iranian Constitution, that drafting such programs is the government’s responsibility. The Ministry of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) has already prepared a relevant bill and is currently under review of government commissions, which will be submitted the bill to Parliament within two weeks. Proceeding without the government’s input could conflict with Articles 57, 60, and 74 of the Constitution and risk rejection by the Guardian Council.

The proponents of the initiative responded to the objections by asserting that the rapid development of AI is an urgent national imperative. They implicitly suggested that the government is losing valuable time, emphasising that if it delays the implementation of the 7th Development Plan, Parliament will exercise its oversight responsibilities.

According to the proponents, the proposed plan is not intended to compete with the government, but rather to complement it. As stated, experts developed this plan after extensive consultations and in coordination with various relevant institutions. Parliament, they argue, is compelled to intervene only in response to the government’s inaction. Notably, in June 2024 the relevant law was promulgated, mandating the government to take appropriate action and present a report within six months. The proponents, therefore, criticise the administration for its failure to act and for not submitting the required reports, framing Parliament’s engagement as a necessary reaction to this neglect.

Rather than seeking confrontation, they propose the formation of a dedicated commission to integrate all relevant perspectives on the matter.

Geopolitical Scenario

The intense internal debate on AI reflects the current situation of Iran, a country that, despite technological isolation, has made significant efforts over the past decades to keep pace with global developments and achieve regional leadership in certain sectors. However, it now faces external vulnerabilities and a lack of investment, forcing it to make difficult decisions regarding the prioritisation of its national agenda.

Moreover, Tehran does not operate under a unipolar power structure; instead, it responds to multiple centres of authority. While this fragmentation fosters a degree of democratic dynamism, in the sense of allowing a plurality of perspectives, it also gives rise to conflicting power dynamics surrounding the country’s policy decisions.

Domestic Scenario

The government faces criticism for its failure to submit its AI bill within the mandated six months. Pezeshkian administration could refuse to bear the cost of the current proposal, prioritising issues such as the unresolved power outages and tripled cement prices. Not to mention the fragile legal background of allocating trillion of tomans without executive consent, which empowers the President to refuse the proposed plan.

Nevertheless, AI development will certainly have a positive economic cross-sector impact on local administrations, resulting in resources optimisation. Moreover, while some advocate for a dedicated and capable AI institution, this might overlap with the Supreme Council of Cyberspace and the Vice Presidency for Science and Technology, leading to duplicated structures. Such a possibility is in contrast with the 7th Development Plan, which calls for 15% of government downsizing and reducing bureaucracies.

External Scenario

Although U.S. lawmakers’ concerns about national security and the potential for sensitive technology to reach adversaries like China, during his recent tour of the Gulf region in mid-May 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump secured a series of significant agreements with Saudi Arabia and the UAE aimed at accelerating AI development in the Middle East. These deals are poised to reshape global AI dynamics and bolster U.S. technological influence.

Saudi Arabia launched “Humain,” a state-backed AI company chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The company secured partnerships with major U.S. tech firms, including Nvidia, which agreed to supply at least 18,000 AI chips, and AMD, committing to a $10 billion investment in joint AI infrastructure projects. Amazon Web Services also pledged $5 billion to establish an “AI Zone” in the Kingdom.

The UAE announced plans to build the largest AI data centre outside the U.S. in Abu Dhabi, spanning 10 square miles and powered by 5GW of energy. This facility will enable access to up to 500,000 of Nvidia’s top AI chips annually, starting in 2025. The country committed to a 10-year, $1.4 trillion investment framework in the U.S., focusing on AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing.

Tehran aspires to become one of the top AI leaders globally. Indeed, at the beginning of 2025, it has committed $115 million to AI research and development. The country has a growing AI ecosystem, supported by a strong academic foundation, and a skilled human capital.

Conclusion

The plan presented in front of the Iranian Parliament was developed with the goals of expanding the AI ecosystem, strengthening infrastructure, and responding to the strategic directives of the Supreme Leader. While those who opposed the plan require a government-submitted bill instead, timing is of the essence at this juncture.

The 7th Development Plan, already established the goals of establishing a National AI Organisation under the President, implementing a trustworthy AI ecosystem, providing ethical, legal, social, and knowledge infrastructure and raising public awareness.

The Islamic Republic cannot afford to lose valuable time in protracted internal debates. AI holds the potential not only to significantly enhance the healthcare system and public administration but also to produce critical advancements in the fields of defence and deterrence. Ensuring a balance between the capabilities available to Iran and those of its regional neighbours is essential for maintaining regional stability.

Written by

  • Silvia Boltuc

    SpecialEurasia Co-Founder & Managing Director. She is an International affairs specialist, business consultant and political analyst who has supported private and public institutions in decision-making by providing reports, risk assessments, and consultancy. Due to her work and reporting activities, she has travelled in Europe, the Middle East, South-East Asia and the post-Soviet space assessing the domestic dynamic and situations and creating a network of local contacts. She is also the Director of the Energy & Engineering Department of CeSEM – Centro Studi Eurasia Mediterraneo and the Project Manager of Persian Files. Previously, she worked as an Associate Director at ASRIE Analytica. She speaks Italian, English, German, Russian and Arabic. She co-authored the book Conflitto in Ucraina: rischio geopolitico, propaganda jihadista e minaccia per l’Europa (Enigma Edizioni 2022).

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