Executive Summary
India and Pakistan are engaged in their most severe military confrontation since 1971, triggered by a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Blaming Pakistan for supporting the attackers, India retaliated with missile strikes on Pakistani Punjab and Kashmir. Islamabad retaliated with air and artillery strikes, causing heavy casualties on both sides. Both countries have suspended longstanding bilateral agreements, showing a breakdown in diplomatic channels.
This report assesses the sequence of military actions, evaluates geopolitical implications, and outlines the risks of further escalation.
Key Takeaways
- India launched missile strikes into Pakistani territory following the Kashmir attack.
- Islamabad retaliated with air and ground operations, increasing casualties and instability.
- The two states suspended diplomatic agreements, raising conflict risks.
Background Information
On April 22, 2025, the “Kashmir Resistance” claimed responsibility for killing 26 civilians in the Pahalgam area of Indian-administered Kashmir. Most victims were Indian nationals; two foreign tourists were also among the dead.
Attackers coming from the mountains targeted a tourist spot, firing into a crowded area. The group’s justification was based on demographic anxieties stemming from Indian resettlement policies. This attack marked the deadliest civilian incident in Kashmir in recent years and reignited New Delhi’s accusations of Pakistani involvement in cross-border militancy.
New Delhi retaliated by withdrawing from a bilateral water-sharing agreement, a key stabilising factor since its establishment. Islamabad retaliated by suspending the Simla Agreement, which had defined the Line of Control since 1972. Ending these agreements eliminated the diplomatic safeguards that had previously helped prevent armed conflict.
Geopolitical Scenario
On May 7, 2025, India started “Operation Sindoor”, targeting Pakistani military positions in Punjab and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The strikes marked the first Indian missile incursions into Punjab since the 1971 war. According to New Delhi, its forces neutralised Pakistani air defences in Lahore and destroyed artillery positions across the border. New Delhi also reported that it intercepted Pakistani missiles and destroyed responding aircraft.
Islamabad confirmed civilian casualties caused by drone and airstrikes while dismissing New Delhi’s allegations as fabrications. Local media reported at least one civilian killed, while the military cited over 40 total casualties from Indian actions. Pakistan retaliated by launching missiles and artillery fire at the Line of Control, striking three Indian military bases in Kashmir.
Domestic sentiment in both countries has shifted decisively. Most Indians have backed the strikes, seeing them as essential to prevent future attacks. Pakistan’s public and political discussions have become increasingly hostile, marked by growing demands for military action. The national military, under Gen Asim Munir, faces pressure to respond decisively or risk internal reputational damage.
The security environment remains volatile. Protests have erupted in both countries, and both air and ground engagements continue. Without working diplomatic or crisis management systems, the chance of miscalculation is great. Continued unchecked hostilities could lead to nuclear escalation, although that is not currently apparent.
Risk Assessment
Negative Outcome—Strategic Deterioration
- Full-scale fighting resumes across the Line of Control, escalating tensions. Frequent cross-border attacks lead to more damage and casualties.
- Rising militant activity in Kashmir weakens state control. Civilian displacement surges.
- Diplomatic relations between New Delhi and Islamabad collapse entirely. Attempts at mediation and pressure fail. Defence posturing accelerates, risking nuclear miscalculation.
Neutral Outcome—Strategic Stalemate
- Sporadic border clashes continue, but the involved parties avoid escalation. Retaliation remains limited and localised.
- Diplomatic engagement resumes in low-level backchannels. Despite aggressive public rhetoric, no one has established formal dialogue.
- Militant activity persists in Kashmir, but without large-scale attacks. Security concerns curb investment and tourism.
Positive Outcome – Strategic Stabilisation
- International diplomatic intervention successfully pressures both nations into a ceasefire agreement. Diplomats reactivate communication channels between the militaries.
- Both sides reinstate bilateral mechanisms for de-escalation and confidence-building measures. Joint statements signal intent to manage tensions through negotiation.
- Cross-border intelligence cooperation improves marginally to counter shared threats from non-state actors. Civilian life in border regions normalises under enhanced monitoring.
Conclusion
The Pahalgam terror attack sparked a surge in tensions between India and Pakistan, severely weakening regional security and exposing the inadequacy of current crisis management systems.
The collapse of key agreements, along with military clashes, shows a failing deterrent and increases the risk of mistakes. Both governments face substantial domestic pressures that constrain diplomatic flexibility and risk entrenching hostile strategic postures. Although international actors have yet to influence the conflict’s trajectory, their role may become pivotal in preventing further escalation.
The situation remains fluid; without immediate re-engagement in diplomatic or confidence-building measures, the region faces an elevated probability of sustained conflict with severe humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical repercussions.
*Cover image: map of the situation in Kashmir among the interests of Pakistan, India, and China (Credits: Viewsridge, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
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