Executive Summary
This report examines Turkey’s multifaceted crisis triggered by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, which has sparked the largest protests in a decade. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration is struggling with economic recession, widespread demonstrations, and increasing international scrutiny. The converging challenges threaten to undermine Erdogan’s 22-year grip on power.
Turkey has officially entered economic recession with a GDP contraction of 0.2% for two consecutive quarters, while inflation has soared to 48.6%. The central bank has maintained a key interest rate of 50% for eight months to combat inflation, significantly dampening consumption and investment.
Meanwhile, the arrest of Imamoglu—widely seen as Erdogan’s main political rival—has catalyzed massive demonstrations across the country, with over 1,400 protesters detained.
Key Takeaways
- The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has sparked the largest protests in over a decade, primarily led by young people and students demanding his release.
- The president has adopted a new strategy of accusing the opposition of “sinking the economy” through protests and boycotts, signaling the effectiveness of opposition economic pressure.
- The expulsion of a BBC journalist and international criticism, particularly from Germany, indicate growing diplomatic tensions and international concern.
Background Information
In March 2025, Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption and terrorism charges, which the opposition claims are politically motivated. Imamoglu, who defeated Erdogan’s candidate in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election and was re-elected in 2024, has been confirmed as the Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) presidential candidate for the 2028 elections.
The arrest follows a series of legal and administrative actions against Imamoglu, including 42 administrative and 51 judicial investigations during his tenure as mayor. Just before his arrest, Istanbul University annulled his diploma, citing improper procedures in his university transfer in 1990—a move that could bar him from the presidency, as the Constitution requires candidates to have a university degree.
The detention of Imamoglu has triggered massive protests across Turkey, particularly in Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. Opposition leader Özgür Özel has stated that protests will continue “in every city” until either early presidential elections are called or Imamoglu is released. The CHP is planning a major rally in Istanbul to launch its campaign for Imamoglu’s presidential candidacy.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s economic situation has deteriorated significantly. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the economy contracted by 0.2% in both the second and third quarters of 2025, confirming that the country has entered a recession. Household consumption decreased by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, and government consumption dropped by 0.4%. Annual inflation remains stubbornly high at 48.6%, forcing the central bank to maintain the key interest rate at 50% for eight consecutive months.
Economic Challenges and Political Tensions: Erdogan weakness
Turkey’s economic woes represent perhaps the most significant threat to Erdogan’s political survival. The combination of recession and high inflation has created a toxic economic environment that has eroded public support for the government.
The economic crisis has placed Erdogan in a difficult position. Lowering interest rates could stimulate growth but might exacerbate inflation, while maintaining high rates will continue to suppress consumption and investment. This dilemma illustrates how Erdogan’s economic manoeuvrability has become severely constrained.
The opposition has seized on this vulnerability by calling for boycotts of companies that allegedly support Erdogan’s government. The president’s accusation that the opposition is “sinking the economy” suggests these boycotts may have a real impact, adding another dimension to the political struggle.
The arrest of Imamoglu represents the culmination of political tensions in Turkey. According to The New York Times, Imamoglu is “widely regarded as Erdogan’s chief political challenger,” and “his popularity has remained high, making him a threat to Erdogan.” Berk Esen, an associate professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul, tells The New York Times: “He made it clear to Erdogan that the train is moving, it is coming in his direction, and he won’t be able to stop it with the normal means. As a result, Erdogan went for the jugular.”
Opposition figures has questioned the nature of the charges against Imamoglu—which include “establishing a criminal organization, taking bribes, extortion, and rigging a public tender”. Musavat Dervisoglu, head of the opposition Iyi Party, challenges the evidence of corruption in the Istanbul municipality, stating: “Dozens of inspectors have gone, 1,300 inspections have been made, nothing has come out of these inspections.”
The protests sparked after Imamoglu’s arrest represented the largest demonstrations in Turkey in over a decade. A notable feature is the prominent presence of young people and students. These protests reveal a deep generational divide in Turkish society. The younger generation, facing economic challenges and political restrictions, is demanding change, while the older, more conservative generation continues to support Erdogan.
One of Erdogan’s primary tools for crisis management is his extensive control over the media. According to Erol Önderoğlu of Reporters Without Borders, President Erdoğan’s control over approximately 85% of Turkey’s national and corporate media outlets renders the media environment neither equitable nor conducive to genuine pluralism.
This media control has created two parallel realities in Turkey: while the sounds of banging pots and pans echo through the streets of opposition strongholds, state television shows Erdogan speaking about government achievements and hiring new teachers. Turkey’s government media watchdog (RTÜK) has banned the broadcasting of live footage of the protests.
Erdogan’s Strategy: Accusing the Opposition of Economic Sabotage
In response to the current crisis, Erdogan has adopted a new strategy: accusing the opposition of destroying the economy. Erdogan, in a recent speech to lawmakers from his Justice and Development Party (AKP), accused the opposition of “sinking the economy” during the protests and said they were “so desperate that they would throw the country and the nation into the fire.”
He warned courts will hold accountable those who sabotage the Turkish economy. These accusations come in response to the opposition’s call for boycotts of companies allegedly supporting Erdogan’s government, suggesting these economic pressure tactics may have an impact.
The expulsion of BBC correspondent Mark Lowen after a 17-hour detention on charges of “being a threat to public order” indicates the Turkish government’s sensitivity to international news coverage of the protests.
Future Outlook: Potential Scenarios
Based on the available evidence and analysis, several scenarios for Turkey’s political future can be envisioned:
- Continuation of the Current Situation with Controlled Tension. Erdogan could attempt to wear down the protests through a combination of limited repression, minor economic reforms, and media leverage, gradually reducing their intensity.
- Early Elections. Erdogan might call for early elections to catch the opposition off guard while their chief leader is in prison. However, widespread economic discontent makes the outcome of such elections uncertain.
- Tactical Retreat. If domestic and international pressure intensifies, Erdogan might release Imamoglu but continue legal obstacles to his presidential candidacy (such as the annulment of his university degree).
- Increased Repression. In the worst-case scenario, Erdogan might resort to more severe repression, harshly suppressing protests and imposing greater restrictions on media and civil space.
Conclusion
Turkey’s current crisis results from a combination of economic, political, and social factors. Erdogan now faces the most serious challenge of his tenure but still possesses powerful tools for crisis management.
What will determine Turkey’s future is the complex interaction between several key factors: economic performance, the continuation of protests, international reactions, and the opposition’s ability to maintain cohesion and pressure.
Although Erdogan’s power base has weakened, his imminent fall is unlikely. Turkey will probably face a period of instability and tension that could impact regional dynamics and relationships with both Western powers and neighboring states.
For regional and international stakeholders, closely monitoring these developments and preparing for various scenarios is essential. The outcome of this crisis will not only shape Turkey’s political landscape but also influence its role in regional geopolitics and economic partnerships.
Author: Amirhossein Ebrahimi
*Cover image: The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Credits: kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the positions of SpecialEurasia. This piece offers an analysis intended to inform and provoke thought.
Contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request information about our tailored consulting services and reports about Turkey.
