Executive Summary

The recent Arctic forum organised in Murmansk highlighted Russia’s strategic focus on expanding its economic and military presence in the region. Moscow seeks long-term infrastructure and resource development while asserting its dominance over the Northern Sea Route.

Growing military presence in the Arctic reflects Western, especially NATO, concerns about potential conflict in the region. Climate change continues to reshape the Arctic’s strategic significance, accelerating competition over resources and shipping routes.

This report examines Moscow’s Arctic strategy, drawing on local, international, and SpecialEurasia’s previous research, focusing on Putin’s recent statements and Russia’s geopolitical positioning.

Background Information

Russia remains the dominant Arctic power, possessing the world’s most advanced icebreaker fleet and extensive territorial claims. It prioritises economic expansion, particularly in resource extraction and infrastructure development.

The United States, Canada, and Nordic countries, alongside NATO, perceive Russia’s Arctic militarisation as a growing security concern. Despite not being an Arctic nation, China is asserting itself as a near-Arctic power to gain access to resources and strategic shipping routes. Geopolitical tensions, especially since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, have hampered the traditionally cooperative Arctic Council.

Moscow hosted the International Arctic Forum, themed “The Arctic – Territory of Dialogue,” on 26-27 March 2025, to promote its Arctic strategy and strengthen its international standing. Held in Murmansk, the forum brought together policymakers, business representatives, and experts to discuss the region’s future. Moscow positioned itself as a leader in Arctic affairs, advocating for equal cooperation while criticising Western states for politicising Arctic governance.

Geopolitical Assessment

Kremlin’s Arctic ambitions include enhancing the Northern Sea Route’s viability as a global shipping corridor and expanding its military footprint. In this speech during the forum, President Vladimir Putin has emphasised the historical and economic significance of Russia’s Arctic presence, framing development as a sovereign necessity. He also stressed that strained relations and Western sanctions are undermining global cooperation, despite Russia’s willingness to selectively engage.

At the International Arctic Forum, Putin outlined several key narratives:

• Sovereignty and Long-Term Development: The Arctic is a historical priority for Russia, requiring multi-generational planning and commitment. Moscow views its presence in the region as an unquestionable sovereign right.
• Economic Expansion and Infrastructure: Russia will continue resource extraction, including rare earth metals, while modernising Arctic transport and energy infrastructure.
• Cooperation vs. Confrontation: Russia remains open to international collaboration in Arctic development but blames Western states for deteriorating dialogue, particularly in the Arctic Council.
• Security Concerns and NATO’s Role: Moscow does not seek conflict in the Arctic, but views NATO’s military presence in the region as a provocation. Russia will respond to the increased participation of Sweden and Finland in NATO activities.
• Northern Sea Route Development: Russia envisions the Northern Sea Route as a key global trade corridor and seeks to expand its capabilities by increasing port capacity and constructing new icebreakers.

NATO considers Russia’s military buildup in the Arctic a security threat, prompting greater cooperation among its members. Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession further alter the regional balance, prompting potential Russian countermeasures.

China strategically focuses on Arctic resources and transit routes, preferring economic partnerships to direct geopolitical conflict.

Strategic and Security Implications

The Arctic’s transformation into a contested strategic space raises risks of military escalation. Russia’s military buildup in the Arctic, combined with NATO’s heightened focus on Arctic defence, is worsening regional security. Economic impacts include intensified competition over resource extraction, with Russia promoting its “Arctic 2025” strategy and pushing forward mining and energy projects despite international restrictions.

Climate change’s role in accelerating Arctic accessibility amplifies geopolitical rivalries, as newly available resources and transport routes attract greater global interest. The erosion of cooperative frameworks such as the Arctic Council further weakens mechanisms for diplomatic resolution.

Moscow’s contradictory Arctic policy, highlighted at the International Arctic Forum, involves both promoting cooperation and asserting its sovereignty. The West’s response will largely determine whether the region sees more conflict or cooperation.

SpecialEurasia OSINT Team

*Cover image: Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Arctic Forum (Credits: Kirill Kazachkov – Roscongress)

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