Introduction
Libya remains a fragmented state, divided between the internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar. Foreign military interventions increasingly shaped the geopolitical landscape, with Russia, the United States, and France pursuing strategic interests in the region.
Recent developments highlight Russia’s expanding military footprint, particularly at the Maaten Al Sarra airbase near the Chadian and Sudanese borders, positioning it as a logistical hub for operations in the Sahel. Concurrently, the United States is strengthening its presence through joint military exercises with both eastern and Western Libyan forces under AFRICOM’s coordination. Meanwhile, France is engaging with Haftar regarding Russian activities in Libya and a potential French military base in the South.
Given these complex dynamics, a deeper understanding of Libya’s developing security and geopolitical environment is necessary. SpecialEurasia had a conversation with Imen Chaanbi, an expert on Libya, to assess the implications of foreign military involvement and the country’s broader strategic direction.
How do you assess the current balance of power between Libya’s dominant factions, particularly the Government of National Unity (GLN) and Libyan National Army (LNA), given recent foreign military engagements?
“Libya is currently divided between the government in the West, chaired by Abdelhamid Dbeiba and the self-proclaimed government in the East led by Marshal Haftar. Both governments have an army and internal security forces.
The military capacity of the Eastern government is far greater than that of the GNU. Marshal Haftar, a military officer, prefers to invest in arms and security equipment. The supplier countries are mainly Russia, Israel, the USA and Egypt. Military instructors come from all over Europe. The LNA is equipped with artillery, joint brigades (25,000 fighters) and 40 combat aircrafts, including Mig-29s and Mirage F-1s. It also has anti-ship missiles, underwater mines, and interceptors.
In the West, the defence budget is smaller than that of the Eastern government.
The GNU’s strategy is aimed at strengthening the Ministry of the Interior. Supported by Qatar and Turkey, they buy from these countries as well as from the USA, the European Union and China. The artillery is half the size of the LNA. In terms of air forces, the GNU army has combat aircraft, armed drones, and attack helicopters.
Their naval forces are still larger than those of the LNA. However, their joint brigades are much smaller than those of the LNA (5,000 fighters).
Turkey plans to deliver Hurkus-C armed training aircraft. The activities of the Ministry of Defence are limited to border and coastal surveillance, and the protection of the National Oil Corporation’s oil production activities.
In terms of technical capacity, the Eastern government remains the most powerful. In terms of legitimacy, the Ministry of Defence in the West has more credibility with the international community. This ministry was the only one to be protected from infiltration by Islamist militias.
Added to this equation is the presence of armed factions and militias established in Tripolitania, which influence the political decisions of the government in the West.
Most of the militias are involved in smuggling and trafficking of migrants, weapons, and drugs. Their weapons come from the stocks of the Gaddafi regime, Syria and Iraq.
Countries such as Turkey and Qatar support the Libyan Islamists, who are seen as a counterweight and a weapon for their strategy of influence in the Maghreb region.
Some militias comprise jihadists from Syria or Tunisia. These groups do not use conventional methods of warfare because of terrorist acts, and terrorism is the hallmark of asymmetric warfare
In the event of a war between the GNU and the LNA, the East would win. If the militias were to unite and enter conflict against the GNU, the militias would win on the ground.
A union between the militias and the GNU could destabilise the Eastern government. But the second civil war revealed the military power of the LNA.”
What are the strategic objectives behind Russia’s expansion at the Maaten Al Sarra airbase, and how might this development affect regional security in the Sahel?
“Russia wants to extend its influence in the Sahel region. Since the fall of Bashar Al Assad, Russia reoriented its military strategy. Its support for Haftar’s military forces during the second civil war enabled it to deploy the Wagner forces, which became the Afrika Corps after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
The Maaten Al Sarra base [1] benefits from a strategic geographic location due to its proximity to the Sahel. The recent transfer of military forces and equipment to this base reveals the Russians’ desire to establish themselves in the Fezzan region. Russia will have strategic access to the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States (AoSS), by controlling the borders and monitoring the military and economic activities of other international players in the region.
This base could eventually become a kind of military logistics hub, serving as a support base for all its operations in the Sahel, including Sudan. It should be noted that Russia, after supporting Hemedti’s forces, is currently aligned with Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.
Russia and the Sudanese government recently concluded the final agreement on the establishment of a Russian naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast. At the same time, this would justify the presence of the Afrika Corps [2] as an intervention force and support force for partner countries in the fight against regional terrorism and trafficking (drugs, arms, etc.).
But Russia also has geo-economic interests in the region. The establishment of a logistics corridor to facilitate the transfer of energy and mining resources via the port of Tobruk is a major challenge for Russia.
Afrika Corps and Haftar’s forces already control the Kufra free zone. The recent agreements on mining with the AoSS countries in a sense justify the Kremlin’s desire to secure its future supplies while controlling Europe’s energy supplies. Russia is also keen to exploit the Kouri-Bougudi gold mines in Chad.
It is important to note that the area where the Maaten Al Sarra military base is situated also serves as a transit point for migrants and refugees.
Using the management of migrants as an instrument is a ‘weapon’ as well as a lever of influence against the European Union.
As a member of the BRICS and a ‘partner nation’ for certain African countries, Russia adopts an economic-military approach. Its military presence is justified by security and development agreements. Faced with instability and the risk of destabilising regimes, the Kremlin is a reliable security partner. Between offensive diplomacy and direct support for the actions of African governments, the Kremlin is extending its influence throughout the Sahel region, including the Horn of Africa. All its military bases in Libya have been the subject of a strategic prospective study based on a vision of the future.”
The United States has conducted joint military exercises with both eastern and western Libyan forces. What are Washington’s key interests in Libya, and how do these exercises fit into AFRICOM’s broader strategy?
“AFRIKOM represents the strategic interests of the United States in Africa. Beyond their military activities, there is a certain parallel diplomacy on the part of US AFRIKOM officers. The recent rapprochement with Marshal Haftar is essentially due to Russia’s growing power in the Sahel region. AFRIKOM is working with both governments, providing the same military advice and logistical support.
The primary interest is to unify the two armies so that a unified government can be put in place. This is part of the United Nations roadmap and the new mission of the United Nations envoy. The United States has a strategic vision for the Maghreb.
General Langley only travelled to deal with regional issues and to protect the economic and strategic interests of the United States. A “true plenipotentiary ambassador” for the United States, he practises a certain ‘offensive economic diplomacy’.
Libya is one of the richest countries in Africa. The country abounds in gas, oil, gold, uranium and phosphate. US companies have begun negotiations to acquire oil blocks in the Fezzan region. By controlling energy production, the United States could eventually become Europe’s main supplier. These risks compromising the interests of Italy, which wants to position itself as Europe’s energy hub.
The United States also has a strategic interest in “the Greater Middle East”. A presence in the Maghreb countries would enable them to counter the influence of Russia, China and the European Union. Africa has always been the European Union’s natural preserve.
AFRIKOM recently negotiated contracts with Algeria on behalf of American oil companies. In Tunisia, the United States has signed an agreement to secure the borders and train the Tunisian military. As for Morocco, discussions on a potential military base in the Western Sahara are underway.
Consideration should be given to setting up potential military bases in the Fezzan and Tripolitania region, on a par with Turkey and Russia. A military presence would enable them to control neighbouring countries and strategic corridors, while monitoring the military activities of other international players.”
Given Haftar’s recent visit to Paris, how do you interpret France’s role in Libya, particularly regarding its discussions on Russian presence and a potential military base?
“France has always supported the GNU, in accordance with international law. The French government takes a balanced stance towards the two parties. This is not the first time that members of the Haftar clan have visited France to discuss possible economic and security opportunities.
Training had been provided by civilian instructors in the field of security. Recent discussions with Marshal Haftar focused on the release of Nigerian opposition figure Mahmoud Sallah, who was arrested on 23 February by Haftar’s forces. The prospect of a French presence at the Al-Wigh military air base on the border with Niger, Chad and Algeria is nothing new.
Indeed, after the 2nd World War, the allies wanted to make Fezzan a strategic issue.
Located south of Tripolitania, it borders southern Tunisia and south-eastern Algeria.
At the time, the French military authorities wanted to take advantage of the defensive value of controlling this coastline for their North African ‘domain’.
What is more, the southern part of the Fezzan covered the northern part of Chad; in fact, from 1943 onwards, land and air routes linked Tunis directly to French Africa via the Tibesti massif.
Following Italy’s withdrawal, a treaty of friendship and good neighbourliness was signed between France, the United States and the United Kingdom concerning the management of Libya. The 1957 Treaty of Tripoli took over Fezzan, which France managed militarily.
A return to the Fezzan is a historic revenge for France, which lost its colonies at that time. Beyond the historical aspects, France wishes to position itself in Libya in the same way as other international players, such as Russia, the United States and Turkey.
Russia, which is present in Cyrenaica and Fezzan, supports the self-proclaimed government of Marshal Haftar. Through the Afrika Corps, Russia operates several military air bases, including Al-Khadim (eastern Libya), Al-Jufra (central Libya), Brak Ali-Shati (west of Sebha), Al-Gadarbiya (Sirte) and Maaten Al-Sarra.
Following the termination of the military cooperation agreements between France and Chad, and with Niger, France is keen to safeguard its interests in the Sahel. This strategic point will enable it to monitor the military activities of Russia and the AoSS countries while protecting its economic interests.
Fezzan remains an area rich in hydrocarbons, gold, and uranium. Finally, there is a security interest in combating terrorism and trafficking in arms and migrants. This destabilised region has been weakened by inter-ethnic and border conflicts. France has always supported the Tuaregs in the region.
As a member of NATO, France seems keen to support the United States in this region. The American ten-year strategic plan proposes to integrate into the southern region and establish the unification of the country while securing the borders, including the Fezzan region.
According to the plan, ‘the south of Libya must be the focus of particular interest, as harmful factors are taking advantage of the weakness of the country’s institutions to establish terrorist cells.’
Russia’s presence is a direct threat to NATO’s interests in the southern Mediterranean. This threat also affects the economic interests of the USA, which covet Libya’s minerals.
Like other international players, France is trying to consolidate its influence through military, economic and diplomatic alliances.
The issue of foreign military bases in Libya is a sensitive one for the Libyan population, the vast majority of whom want all bases, including Russian and Turkish ones, to be dismantled.”
What impact do these overlapping foreign military activities have on Libya’s stability and prospects for national unification?
“Overlapping foreign military activities in Libya is having a considerable impact on the country’s stability and the prospects for a unified government. These interventions are contributing to the fragmentation of the country.
The attitude of some countries is more indicative of a desire to keep the country divided than to reunite it. Each country wishes to preserve its economic and strategic interests. Some neighbouring countries have taken advantage of the Libyan crisis to set up military bases and deploy special forces.
Others want to spread Islamist ideology or even turn Libya into the annex of a caliphate [3]. Algeria and Tunisia, for their part, have revived the territorial conflict that pitted them against Libya.
Foreign interference by Russia, Turkey and Egypt is reinforcing the internal divisions between armed groups, tribes, and militias. By supporting one of the governments militarily and politically, each power accentuates the conflict between rival factions, preventing any prospect of national unification.
The presence of foreign forces on Libyan territory is preventing the emergence of a national army. The countries involved militarily train the officers of each army. Their military presence is a continuation of their political and diplomatic presence.
The countries wish to safeguard their economic and strategic interests. By deploying its military forces in Tripolitania, Turkey wanted to control the so-called strategic infrastructures (ports, airports) in Tripoli and Misurata. By offering to be the GNU’s protector, Turkey has established itself as the government’s main commercial and military partner. This situation is undermining the political and economic agreements signed with other countries.
The presence of foreign forces is also having an impact on the Libyan economy. Most attacks take place near oil terminals. Over 90% of government revenue comes from hydrocarbons. Conflicts between stakeholders are affecting oil production.
Added to this is the presence of foreign fighters, used by certain players as a weapon of influence or destabilisation. The election of Al Jolani has already encouraged Belhadj to wage a national jihad in the event of a foreign invasion. Belhadj, who is currently supported by Turkey and Qatar, seems to want to make Libya the rear base of Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb.
By waging a proxy war on Libyan territory, the foreign powers are fuelling political division. They are contributing to the destabilisation of the country, making it difficult to establish a stable and unified government. This jeopardises any prospect of peace in the short and medium term. This situation clearly risks plunging Libya into a third civil war. This would lead to the destabilisation of all the neighbouring countries and the explosion of terrorist groups.”
In your view, how should regional and international actors respond to the increasing geopolitical competition in Libya to avoid further destabilisation?
“The fall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s regime has destroyed Libyan institutions, destabilised the Sahel region and created additional threats for Europe. The regional players are in favour of lasting peace in the region. This peace must involve the establishment of a unified government, legislative elections and the departure of foreign troops, including mercenaries. Inter-Libyan national reconciliation charter signed on 14 February 2025 is a source of hope for the Libyan people, who have suffered two civil wars and a “stolen revolution” [4].
At international level, the United Nations is acting through the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSML). The new representative, Hanna Tetteh, must ensure that the UN resolutions and roadmap are implemented. To this end, the international players will have to adopt a coordinated approach based on multilateral diplomacy, which must include all the Libyan stakeholders (former members of the regime, tribes, Libyan Islamists, etc.) as well as regional players (Chad, Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Niger) [5]. The African Union and the Arab League also have a role to play, as does the European Union.
The main international players, most of whom are members of the Security Council, must encourage an end to this conflict. This implies the immediate cessation of all forms of military support to the various factions and the imposition of sanctions on all armed groups (militias, paramilitary groups, etc.) [6]. Countries that have military bases should hand them over and leave Libya so that the new Minister of Defence can carry out his duties.
The players will have to encourage the militia disarmament programme with the DDR (demobilisation, disarmament, and reintegration) which will be set up by the UN. Peacekeeping Forces could be deployed in sensitive areas to guarantee security during the transition period.
Libya is not a cake to be shared, but belongs to the Libyan people, who feel having lost everything in 2011.
At this stage, Italy has been the only country to adopt a multilateralist diplomacy that brings the interests of the Libyan people into the equation. The Mattei plan reconciles security and development while seeking to preserve European security [7]
International players could encourage economic and social cooperation with the transitional government. By creating jobs, the militias would lay down their arms.
To avoid the country being divided into 3 and descending into a third civil war, it is important to let the Libyan people run the future of their country [8].
Regional and international players should adopt a collaborative approach focused on peace, supporting Libyan efforts to reach a political solution. They should avoid any military escalation and ensure respect for national sovereignty.
It is up to all players to promote diplomacy and strengthen Libyan institutions.
Finally, the main avenues for resolving the Libyan conflict are reconciliation, national dialogue, guaranteed civil and political rights, peaceful coexistence in a unified territory and the rejection of all foreign domination.
Beyond the political stakes, the country will have to rise to the economic and social challenges. Structural and operational cooperation between Libya and other countries should help combat terrorism, human, drug trafficking and arms trafficking.
Repositioning Libya on the African stage will contribute to peace and security in the Sahel-Saharan region.
Sources
[1] This base was used during the Chadian-Libyan conflict.
[2] The strength of the Afrika Corps is estimated at 2,000 men.
[3] By supporting Haftar’s government, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates hope to counter the Salafist ideology of Turkey/Qatar by advocating the Madkhalist doctrine.
[4] The Chartes has been signed in Addis-Abeba.
[5] This will unify the country by integrating the people of southern Libya.
[6] By supporting one side, the parties are contributing to the political, territorial and administrative division of the country. The mercenaries and foreign militias supported by certain players will have to leave the country.
[7] Fight against illegal immigration and terrorism.
[8] Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan.
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
*Cover image: an image of fighters in Libya (Credits: Gabriele Micalizzi, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
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