Russian Military and Strategic Expansion in Libya Through the Maaten al-Sarra Airbase

Russia's Military Presence in Libya in the Maaten al-Sarra Airbase

Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 51 Issue 2
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

Russia is expanding its military footprint in Libya, focusing on the Maaten Al Sarra airbase near the Chadian and Sudanese borders. This action shows a strategic reorientation by Moscow toward the Sahel, resulting from challenges encountered in Syria.

Satellite imagery and international open sources indicated Russia is modernising the airbase and leveraging its alliances with key Libyan factions, particularly the Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar. The base might serve as a logistical hub for operations in Mali, Burkina Faso, and potentially Sudan.

This report examines Russia’s activities near the Libyan airbase, analysing the significant geopolitical consequences, such as heightened regional conflict, increased Russian influence in Africa, and the weakening of Western security efforts.

Information Background

Libya has been a fragmented state since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, with competing factions vying for control. The country remains divided between the internationally recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the LNA, led by Khalifa Haftar, which controls eastern Libya.

Russia has fostered a strong relationship with Haftar, offering military aid for strategic advantages. Prior to its restructuring under the Russian Ministry of Defence, the Wagner Group, Moscow’s leading operative force in Africa, played a crucial role in advancing the Kremlin’s interests.

The Maaten Al Sarra base, originally used during the Libyan-Chadian war of the 1980s, has acquired renewed significance because of its proximity to the Sahel. Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Russia has repositioned military assets from its Syrian bases to Libya, viewing the country as a gateway to Africa. Moscow’s increasing involvement with Libyan tribes in the south strengthens its regional power, improving logistical coordination across the Sahel.

Analysis of Key Developments

  • Military Expansion at Maaten Al Sarra: Russia has transferred personnel, including Syrian military defectors, and equipment to restore and expand the Maaten Al Sarra airbase. Reconstruction efforts include runway repairs, the establishment of storage facilities, and enhanced logistical capabilities. The base might facilitate operations across the Sahel.
  • Strategic Realignment in Sudan: Moscow has distanced itself from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) and has instead aligned with Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan. This shift suggests the Kremlin is reassessing its interests in Sudan, a move that could change the regional balance of power.
  • Air Transport Operations: Reports from publicly available information (PAI) show an increase in cargo flights between Russian bases in Syria and Libya since December 2024. These flights probably carried military equipment and personnel, strengthening Moscow’s influence in North Africa.
  • Russian Influence in the Sahel: Russia has developed deeper ties with military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso, positioning itself as a security partner amid the withdrawal of Western forces. Establishing Maaten Al-Sarra as a logistics hub will bolster military operations in these states.
  • The Role of the “African Corps”: The Russian Armed Forces deployed the newly formed private military company (PMC) “African Corps” across key areas in Libya. Its presence extends from Tripoli’s outskirts to the Haruba military base in the east, providing operational flexibility across the region.
  • Increasing Paramilitary Activities: Russia’s bolstered presence in Libya could facilitate an expansion of paramilitary activities across the Sahel, emboldening military-led governments in Mali and Burkina Faso while undermining Western-led counterterrorism efforts. A continuous supply route from Libya to sub-Saharan Africa strengthens Moscow’s ability to support allied governments militarily, solidifying its role as an alternative security partner.
  • Increasing Challenge for Western actors: NATO and the European Union now face the challenge of countering the Kremlin’s growing influence in the region. As Western forces withdraw from the Sahel, Russia’s involvement may undermine diplomatic and military efforts to stabilise the region. There is also an increasing geopolitical risk of a direct clash between the Russian Federation and the West in North Africa, especially given the growing strain on European interests in the region, including energy supplies.
  • Economic Implications: Control over critical supply routes and access to the Sahel’s resource wealth, including gold and uranium, could serve to bolster Moscow’s strategic and economic leverage. Stronger military and political ties with Sahel states could give Russia economic advantages, increasing its economic role in Africa and reducing Western influence.

Conclusion

Russia’s military expansion in Libya and the Sahel reflects a calculated strategy aimed at consolidating influence across North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. Developing Maaten Al-Sarra as a logistics hub expands Moscow’s operational capabilities, enabling greater involvement with Sahel’s military governments.

The geopolitical implications of this shift are far-reaching, necessitating a reassessment of Western diplomatic and security strategies to mitigate the risks associated with Russia’s growing foothold in Africa.


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