Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 51 Issue 10
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

Executive Summary

This report analyses President Vladimir Putin’s Defender of the Fatherland Day address (23 February 2025), which reinforces key narratives legitimising Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, strengthening domestic resolve, and projecting historical continuity.

Given renewed US-Russia diplomacy, the speech fits the changing geopolitical scenario, enabling Moscow to exploit Western divisions and simultaneously maintain military pressure.

By framing the conflict as a national struggle and signalling Moscow’s long-term commitment, Putin’s messaging aims to sustain domestic support, deter external opposition, and shape global perceptions of the war’s inevitability.

Background Information

Defender of the Fatherland Day, celebrated annually on 23 February in Russia and several post-Soviet states, has its origins in the Soviet-era commemoration of the Red Army’s foundation. Over time, it has developed into a broader celebration of military service, aligning with the Kremlin’s emphasis on patriotism and national strength.

In 2025, this celebration occurs against the backdrop of significant international developments:

1. Three years of Ukraine conflict after Moscow started its military operation on February 24^th, 2022, with Russian forces gaining ground in the last year.
2. The Trump Administration’s new diplomatic engagement with Moscow, sidelining Ukraine in negotiations.
3. Ongoing tensions between Russia and the European Union, exacerbated by concerns over Western strategic cohesion.

In this context, Putin’s speech aims to bolster domestic support and demonstrate international strength.

Narrative Analysis

Putin’s address employs several recurring themes in Russian strategic communication:

• Historical Continuity and National Defence. Putin directly links past Russian military victories to the current war in Ukraine, framing it as a continuation of historical battles for national independence. Drawing parallels between medieval battles and World War II, he presents Russia’s military actions as a consistent, heroic defence of the nation. The speech reinforces the idea that Russian soldiers in Ukraine are fulfilling a patriotic duty, akin to their forebears who fought against external threats. By invoking World War II, Putin aligns the “special military operation” with the Soviet struggle against Nazism, a powerful and emotive comparison in Russian public discourse.
• Legitimisation of the Ukraine Conflict. The Russian president openly praised the troops in the so-called “special military operation,” depicting them as heroes defending the country’s interests. The emphasis on Russian sacrifices aims to justify continued societal and resource mobilisation, frame the conflict defensively against accusations of aggression, and bolster the belief in inevitable victory to sustain morale as the war enters its fourth year.
• Strategic Stability and Military Readiness. Putin’s assertion that Russia will continue modernising its armed forces signals both deterrence against the West and reassurance for domestic audiences. He highlighted the nation’s dedication to bolstering Russia’s military, focusing on adapting to changing battlefield dynamics, technological upgrades, and better conditions for its personnel, presenting the Russian military as a stabilising force in an unstable world.
• Strategic Communication and Audience Targeting. The speech primarily targets a domestic audience, particularly military personnel, veterans, and their families. However, it also sends strategic signals to external actors:
  • To Western policymakers: Russia remains resolute and is prepared for a long-term confrontation if necessary.
  • To Ukraine and its allies: Russia’s military superiority and historical destiny frame the war as unwinnable for Kyiv.
  • To undecided global actors (e.g., China, the Global South) Russia presents itself as a stabilising power resisting Western interference.

Conclusion

Putin’s Defender of the Fatherland Day speech reinforces established Kremlin narratives while adapting to emerging geopolitical conditions. The address seeks to maintain public support for the war in Ukraine by framing it as the latest chapter in Russia’s long history of military conflict. It also seeks to signal Moscow’s military and political resilience, particularly as diplomatic conditions begin to shift in its favour. Moreover, the speech contradicts Ukrainian and Western narratives by suggesting Russia’s actions are both necessary and unavoidable.

The speech carries several strategic implications. It shows stronger Russian resolve, meaning the Kremlin will not change its military goals and the situation will likely worsen. The diplomatic engagement between Washington and Moscow could weaken Western unity, as European allies may face internal divisions over their continued support for Ukraine. The focus on Russia’s powerful military and the seemingly inevitable historical trajectory puts significant psychological strain on Ukraine, potentially undermining its resolve.

However, key risks remain. Russia may escalate its battlefield operations further to capitalise on shifting geopolitical momentum. Increased US-Russia diplomatic engagement risks eroding Western backing for Ukraine, leaving Kyiv more isolated. The speech also indicates Russia’s commitment to a protracted military campaign, suggesting a potential for long-term involvement in the conflict.

*Picture: The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin (Credits: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

This report is part of our special project for the third anniversary of the Ukraine conflict. Contact us at info@specialeurasia.com to request our tailored monitoring reports and information about our consulting services on Russia and the Ukraine conflict.