Introduction
In a recent interview conducted by SpecialEurasia Research Manager, Giuliano Bifolchi, Dr Cesare Figari Barberis offered a comprehensive and critical analysis of the sociopolitical landscape across the South Caucasus, highlighting deepening authoritarianism, external geopolitical manipulations, and the increasing marginalisation of democratic norms.
The discussion starkly assessed recent developments in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia, highlighting the strategic contradictions faced by Western actors, especially the EU, in balancing energy security against human rights and democratic governance.
South Caucasus and Sociopolitical Trends: Key Topics
During the discussion, Giuliano Bifolchi and Cesare Figari Barberis discussed these key topics and trends:
- Azerbaijan: Repression and the Collapse of Civil Freedoms. Dr Figari Barberis described Azerbaijan’s current domestic situation as a “disaster,” marked by severe political repression since mid-2023. Baku has systematically targeted independent journalists, researchers, and civil society actors through fabricated charges such as smuggling, treason, or inciting ethnic discord. High-profile cases, including the 18-year sentence imposed on a Talish researcher Abilov, exemplify the regime’s repressive tactics. The suppression has extended to minor online media, forcing various critics into exile. Although the government claims media diversity and political openness, the interview revealed that the regime maintains almost complete control over public discourse, creating a facade of democracy while undermining civic participation.
- Geopolitics and the Illusion of Normalcy. Azerbaijan’s energy reserves and transit potential have rendered it an indispensable partner for European and Western interests, especially in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict. European memoranda and diplomatic engagements, while outwardly strategic, have implicitly endorsed an authoritarian regime that systematically violates civil liberties. Dr Figari Barberis challenged the reliability of official accounts regarding media freedom and political pluralism. He argued the government’s image of openness is a deliberate deception, masking a heavily controlled and monitored society.
- Ethical Compromises in Western Engagement. The European Union’s stance on Azerbaijan reveals profound contradictions. While publicly affirming democratic values, the Brussels continues to cooperate with Baku, seemingly indifferent to the fate of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh and the deepening repression within the country. Congratulatory messages and strategic partnerships stand in stark contrast to the realities on the ground. Dr Figari Barberis emphasised that this dissonance is not accidental but rooted in energy pragmatism and geopolitical opportunism, raising questions about the sustainability and morality of such foreign policy postures.
- Georgia and Armenia: Parallel Declines in Democratic Standards. Beyond Azerbaijan, the interview shed light on Georgia’s gradual descent into authoritarian governance under the Georgian Dream party. Once a model of democratic reform, Georgia now shows clear signs of becoming autocratic, including attacks on civil society and the opposition. Armenia faces a different yet equally precarious trajectory. Straddling the need for reconciliation with Azerbaijan, dependence on Russian security assurances, internal disappointment with Pashinyan’s leadership, the country’s geopolitical risk is rising. Both Tbilisi and Yerevan mirror broader regional trends of democratic backsliding, exacerbated by external pressures and domestic governance failures.
- Ukraine War and Russian Strategic Retrenchment. The beginning of the Ukraine conflict in 2022 served as a catalyst for significant geopolitical recalibrations in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s growing confidence and regional power shifts are consequences of Russia’s new strategy in the region. Dr. Figari Barberis observed that Moscow’s waning regional influence reveals the shortcomings of its security assurances and highlights the West’s strategically inconsistent reactions to changing circumstances.
- European Union: Strategic Incoherence and Moral Ambiguity. A recurring theme in the interview was the EU’s failure to adopt a coherent, value-driven approach to the South Caucasus. Dr Figari Barberis criticised Brussels for prioritising short-term energy security and logistical interests at the expense of principled engagement. Bureaucracy and a lack of regional understanding have weakened the Brussels’ influence as a normative power. This incoherence has permitted authoritarian regimes to manoeuvre without consequence, eroding democratic momentum and emboldening regional autocrats.
- Long-Term Consequences for Regional Security and Governance. The current trajectory of repression, securitisation, and instrumentalised geopolitics could have grave long-term implications. Weakening civil society and independent institutions in the South Caucasus could lead to more conflict, war, and instability. The area could become like the entrenched authoritarianism of Central Asia, with little hope for democracy’s return.
- Silencing of Media and Academic Institutions. The interview ended by sharply criticising the global media and academia for their silence on Azerbaijan’s authoritarianism and the region’s similar issues. Western media tends to ignore these issues, hindering accountability and informed discussion. The absence of comprehensive scrutiny hampers international awareness and allows autocratic actors to operate unchallenged, reinforcing cycles of impunity and repression.
Conclusion and Recommendations
Dr Figari Barberis called for a renewed commitment to transparency, critical reporting, and scholarly engagement with the South Caucasus. He emphasised the importance of informed analysis and moral clarity for international actors to build a more stable and democratic region.
The interview offers an important reminder: prioritising geopolitical advantage at the expense of democratic integrity risks not only legitimising authoritarian regimes but also destabilising the entire region in the long term. Greater vigilance, ethical consistency, and institutional awareness are imperative for any constructive engagement with the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
