Tag: Giuliano Bifolchi

Giuliano Bifolchi – Research Manager. He has vast experience in Intelligence analysis, geopolitics, security, conflict management, and ethnic minorities. He holds a PhD in Islamic history from the University of Rome Tor Vergata, a master’s degree in Peacebuilding Management and International Relations from Pontifical University San Bonaventura, and a master’s degree in History from the University of Rome Tor Vergata. As an Intelligence analyst and political risk advisor, he has organised working visits and official missions in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and the post-Soviet space and has supported the decision-making process of private and public institutions writing reports and risk assessments. Previously, he founded and directed ASRIE Analytica. He has written several academic papers on geopolitics, conflicts, and jihadist propaganda. He is the author of the books Geopolitical del Caucaso russo. Gli interessi del Cremlino e degli attori stranieri nelle dinamiche locali nordcaucasiche (Sandro Teti Editore 2020) and Storia del Caucaso del Nord tra presenza russa, Islam e terrorismo (Anteo Edizioni 2022). He was also the co-author of the book Conflitto in Ucraina: rischio geopolitico, propaganda jihadista e minaccia per l’Europa (Enigma Edizioni). He speaks Italian, English, Russian, Spanish and Arabic.

PMC Wagner Group
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Russia

Putin’s Power Play: Managing the PMC Wagner Mutiny in the Russian Federation

The recent mutiny led by the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner in the Russian Federation brought forth a critical moment for President Vladimir Putin. During this crisis, Putin garnered the support of the Russian army, regional governors and heads of states, reaffirming his powerful position in the political and military landscape.

Ramzan Kadyrov
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Caucasus Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Russia

Chechen Leader Ramzan Kadyrov: A Key Ally in Putin’s Fight Against Prigozhin and Wagner PMC

The orchestrated military rebellion, led by Evgeny Prigozhin, against the central authority in Russia, presents an opportunity for Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, and his military troops to emerge as significant allies and actors in the Kremlin’s domestic and foreign policy landscape.

North Caucasus Federal University
Posted in Caucasus Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Middle East Monitoring & Analysis

Bridging Nations: Promoting Cooperation between North Caucasus and Iraq through Education and Research

The recent visit of the North Caucasian Federal University (NCFU) delegation to Iraq marked a significant step towards fostering cooperation between the Russian North Caucasus and the Middle Eastern country.

geopolitical analysis world
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Intelligence & Geopolitics

Breaking the News Cycle: Enhancing Geopolitical Analysis Through Analytical Frameworks

At SpecialEurasia we had a profound realisation regarding the significance of relying on an analytical framework in geopolitical analysis rather than attempting to consume an overwhelming amount of news in the realm of geopolitical forecasting.

North Caucasus map
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Caucasus Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Russia

Beyond the Headlines: Understanding the Ongoing Relevance of the North Caucasus

This report highlights the reasons the North Caucasus remains important and necessitates ongoing monitoring and provides some future scenarios about the region.

Critical Thinking and geopolitics
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Intelligence & Geopolitics

Improve your geopolitical analysis thanks to critical thinking

Critical thinking might support geopolitics by providing a framework for analysing and evaluating arguments about power and place. By utilising frameworks for critical examination, analyst can investigate geopolitics and uncover the concealed political powers of geopolitical comprehension.

Emomali Rahmon the President of Tajikistan
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Central Asia Russia

Economic Cooperation and Security: Russia pushes Tajikistan’s Entry into the EAEU

The recent meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon has unveiled the Central Asian republic’s strategic role for Moscow’s foreign policy in the region in defence, security, economy and social sectors.

Security and terrorism in the Philippines
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Asia-Pacific Terrorism

Unveiling the Shadows: Understanding the Ongoing Terrorism Threat in the Philippines

The recent counterterrorism operation conducted in the Lanao del Sur province of the Philippines has brought terrorism to the forefront in this Asian nation.

A city in Dagestan
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Caucasus Central Asia Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Russia

Dagestan and Tajikistan discussed expanding cooperation in different fields, especially the halal industry

Dagestan and Tajikistan’s entente on developing cooperation confirms the North Caucasus’s role in promoting relations between Russia and foreign countries, especially those in the blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) where the Kremlin wants to confirm its presence and influence.

Egyptian investments in Uzbekistan
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Africa Central Asia

$1.2 billion Egyptian investments to strengthen relations with Uzbekistan

Egyptian business representatives promised $1.2 billion investments in Uzbekistan in different economic fields during the meeting with the Uzbek President

Competitive Intelligence
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Intelligence & Geopolitics

Open Source Intelligence: A Valuable Tool for Competitive Intelligence

To acquire a competitive edge, entrepreneurs must have access to timely and relevant information about their rivals, industry trends, and market dynamics. In this context, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) emerges as a valuable tool for competitive intelligence.

Central Asia map
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Central Asia China

Brussels and Beijing’s interest/competition in Central Asia

The first China-Central Asia Summit and the second EU-Central Asia Economic Forum highlighted Beijing and Brussels’ interests and competition in the region.

Muslim world
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Middle East Russia Ukraine

Ukraine – Russia conflict and the Muslim world

The KazanForum 2023 and Zelensky’s visit to Jeddah during the Arab League summit underlined how strategic is the Muslim world for Russia and Ukraine.

Kyrgyz military forces killed a terrorist
Posted in Central Asia Monitoring & Analysis Terrorism

Kyrgyzstan security forces eliminated a terrorist near Bishkek: why does it matter?

The Kyrgyz special operation to arrest an armed group in Dmitrievka, which resulted in the elimination of a suspected terrorist who fought in Syria, highlighted that Kyrgyzstan is not immune to terrorism or jihadist propaganda.

Geopolitics of Eurasia and the Islamic world among Russia and China's interests_SpecialEurasia
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Central Asia China Middle East Russia

The importance of KazanForum 2023 and the China-Central Asia Summit for Eurasia and the Islamic world’s geopolitics

The KazanForum 2023 and the “China-Central Asia” Summit definitely emphasise Kremlin and Beijing’s strategies in Eurasia and the Islamic world’s strategic areas in time of confrontation with the West.

640px Secret Service Financial Crimes Task Force FCTF
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Intelligence & Geopolitics

Writing a report: the BLUF framework in Intelligence Analysis

Writing an Intelligence Analysis report might be a hard task. Using the BLUF framework can help the analyst in its duty to produce solid intelligence in daily activities.

Flag map of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis AfPak Terrorism

Afghanistan: the Taliban killed seven Islamic State militants

The Taliban continue their effort to contrast and eliminate the Islamic State’s threat, confirming the Islamic Emirate necessity to stabilise the country to attract foreign investors and international consensus.

Ingush Liberation Army
Posted in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Caucasus Monitoring & Analysis Russia

Ingush activists announced the formation of the Ingush Liberation Army, threatening the Kremlin’s regional presence and strategy

The Kremlin might face a new wave of violent attacks or regional destabilisation due to the establishment of the Ingush Liberation Army, a military branch that the Ingush Independence Committee created to support an independent Ingushetia separated from the Russian Federation.

The Dushanbe-Kulma highway will connect Tajikistan and China through the Pamir mountains (Credits: Image by Walter Frehner from Pixabay)
Posted in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Central Asia China Monitoring & Analysis

How might the Dushanbe-Kulma highway support interconnection between Gorno-Badakhshan and Xinjiang and regional stability?

The construction of the Dushanbe-Kulma highway, thanks to the Chinese investment, might support the interconnection between the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) with the final goal of improving local economies and stabilising these two strategic regions.

US soldiers in Syria (CENTCOM)
Posted in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Middle East Monitoring & Analysis Terrorism United States

CENTCOM eliminated a senior Islamic State Syria leader and highlighted the US commitment to the Middle East

CENTCOM’s killing of a senior Islamic State Syria leader stressed the US commitment to fighting the terrorist threats and emphasised the persistent instability in the Middle East related to jihadist and terrorist activities.

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Analyst
Posted in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Intelligence & Geopolitics Monitoring & Analysis

The Importance and Benefits of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in Geopolitical Assessments

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is a crucial aspect of modern-day geopolitics because it provides timely and accurate information to inform decision-making processes. By leveraging various open sources such as social media, news outlets, and other publicly available data, intelligence agencies can detect emerging trends and patterns in all aspects of life, including political, economic, social and technological domains.

M4 entrance to Republic of Adygea
Posted in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Caucasus Monitoring & Analysis Russia

Increased investment in Adygea confirmed the Kremlin’s strategy in the North Caucasus

Increased Russian investments in Adygea confirm the Kremlin’s strategy to implement the North Caucasus’ socioeconomic development and transform the region into a logistics hub supporting the diversification of Russian exports.

Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan
Posted in Central Asia Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Middle East Monitoring & Analysis

Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan continue strengthening investment cooperation and bilateral relations

Recent negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan on investment cooperation confirmed Riyadh’s strategy in Central Asia based on financial support to local governments’ infrastructural projects and humanitarian aid.

Geopolitical Report Volume 1 Year 2023 Boltuc Bifolchi
Posted in Central Asia Monitoring & Analysis

Analisi e valutazione del rischio geopolitico in Asia centrale

Obiettivo di questo paper è quello di valutare il rischio geopolitico dell’Asia centrale prendendo in esame le dinamiche geopolitiche regionali e le problematiche che potrebbero comportare destabilizzazione e mancanza di sicurezza.

Map of Gorno Badakhshan in the Republic of Tajikistan
Posted in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Central Asia Monitoring & Analysis

Geopolitics of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO)

The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) might be considered one of Central Asia’s most strategically important areas, attracting multiple global powers’ attention. Under Dushanbe’s control, the region has experimented with the confrontation between the central authority and the local population.

Paper "Asia centale"
Posted in Monitoring & Analysis Central Asia

Asia centrale: dinamiche regionali e interessi internazionali

Questa ricerca mira ad analizzare gli sviluppi geopolitici centroasiatici prendendo in considerazione i recenti eventi che hanno influenzato lo scacchiere eurasiatico come lo scontro tra la Russia e l’Occidente, il confronto tra Stati Uniti e Cina e la volontà di emergere come potenze regionali di Turchia, India e monarchie del Golfo.

Astana 17 SpecialEurasia March 2023 e1679244705987
Posted in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Central Asia Monitoring & Analysis

Elezioni parlamentari in Kazakhstan: stabilità interna e prospettive per gli investitori

Le elezioni parlamentari in Kazakhstan potrebbero dare stabilità al paese e completare il processo di riforme avviato lo scorso anno volto a garantire sicurezza interna, supporto al Governo e al presidente così come a rassicurare gli investitori sul mercato interno kazako.