In an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world, the recent Busan Economic Forum has confirmed Seoul and the Central Asian republics’ interests to strengthen economic and trade relations, positioning South Korea amidst a dynamic landscape shaped by global powers as well as pivotal regional actors.
The progression of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear energy initiative has prompted speculation within the international community. As the world’s foremost petroleum producer, the nation’s decision to engage with nuclear power facilities may seem unanticipated.
The Astrakhan region has historically served as a significant centre of Russian presence in the Caspian region for centuries. Since the late 20th century, following the geopolitical shifts caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union, Astrakhan’s role in Russia’s Caspian policy has acquired considerable prominence.
In an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape, the perception of a waning United States influence in the Middle East has gained momentum. This shift has sparked debates about the extent of the US disengagement and the emerging roles of other global players, particularly China.
The forthcoming “United States + Central Asia” summit, scheduled for mid-September 2023, stands as a resounding affirmation of the region’s enduring geopolitical significance
The Republic of Artsakh, also known as Nagorno-Karabakh, has found itself embroiled in a dire humanitarian crisis because of the Azerbaijan blockade imposed since December 2022.
Emomali Rahmon’s visits to the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) highlights Dushanbe’s commitment to regional development and control, yet also expose the challenge of balancing local discontent with central authority.
The ubiquitous presence of technology characterises the current digital age, making it imperative to recognise the crucial role cybersecurity plays. One potent tool in the cybersecurity arsenal is OSINT, a collection of techniques that involve researching from publicly available sources.
Turkey-Iran relations have always been discontinuous, characterised by cooperation on the diplomatic level, alternating with opposite geopolitical needs and foreign strategies. Nowadays, especially in the Middle East and the Caucasus, Pan-Turkism and strategic needs drive Ankara-Tehran relations.
Chinese Minister of Defence’s visit to Russia and Belarus reflects the cooperation between these countries in the realm of defence and highlights the significance of multilateral discussions in ensuring global stability and security.
SpecialEurasia met in Sukhum Irakli Tuzhba, Deputy Minister of the Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Abkhazia, to delve into Abkhaz domestic and foreign politics and investigate future developments of the country.
The first-ever trilateral summit between Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan organised in Ashgabat underlined the desire of these three Central Asian republics to cooperate in different fields to guarantee regional stability and interconnection.
The developing geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran’ strategy and cooperation with Syria in the defence and military weapons sectors, have sparked significant shifts on the regional chessboard.
Turkey’s engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has evolved into a strategic endeavour, marked by Ankara’s quest for deeper economic, diplomatic, and cultural connections.
Today, the countries of Central Asia have closer ties than ever before, and these bonds are expanding. An example of this is the summits that the states are holding with Central Asia and the frequent state and working visits by Central Asian leaders to each other’s countries.
In a strategic move amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, Kyrgyzstan and Iran are attempting to expand their trade and economic ties, driven by Bishkek’s pursuit of alternative transit routes and access to Iranian oil products, and Tehran’s strategic outreach towards the Central Asian republics considering Western sanctions and recent developments in the Eurasian region.
The inaugural “Central Asia + GCC” Summit held in Saudi Arabia marks a significant milestone in fostering interregional cooperation between the Gulf countries and Central Asia.
The assassination of Qari Mohammad Dawezi in Afghanistan, a field commander affiliated with the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a faction withing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), highlights the intensifying factional infighting within the organisation and the significant role that the Afghan territory has for jihadist militants.
After our visits to Astana, SpecialEurasia published a report on the future prospects of Kazakhstan, which analysed the country’s domestic and foreign policy as well as the local society and culture.
Uzbekistan recently held its presidential elections, and the re-election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev has significant importance for the country. Mirziyoyev’s victory ensures stronger governance, allowing Uzbekistan to continue its process of reforms, economic diversification, and foreign policy initiatives.
The Azerbaijani State Security Service recently detained an Afghan citizen who had been planning a terrorist attack within the country. This alarming development highlights the ongoing global threat of terrorism and the importance of maintaining public stability and security.
A recent operation by German federal prosecutors has uncovered a suspected jihadist cell composed of seven individuals from Central Asia. This development highlights the severity of the terrorist threat faced by Europe from external sources.
Iraq has the world’s third-largest proven conventional petroleum reserves after Saudi Arabia and Iran. Recent developments in the oil and gas field suggest that the Middle Eastern country might be one of the future European leading suppliers.
The upcoming Turkish elections might affect Ankara-Tehran relations if the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu will defeat the president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and, thus, change domestic and foreign policies.
SpecialEurasia met in Rome H.E. Julianne Smith, the US Ambassador to NATO to investigate the conflict in Ukraine, the Chinese threat, and global challenges such as terrorism, issues which the Atlantic Alliance will discuss at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023.
Kazakhstan’s desire to increase exports to Iran might hugely impact geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia, considering Astana’s desire to diversify and enhance its trade and economic partners to decrease Russia and China’s influence and Tehran’s necessity to overcome Western sanctions.
The Kremlin might face a new wave of violent attacks or regional destabilisation due to the establishment of the Ingush Liberation Army, a military branch that the Ingush Independence Committee created to support an independent Ingushetia separated from the Russian Federation.
The construction of the Dushanbe-Kulma highway, thanks to the Chinese investment, might support the interconnection between the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) with the final goal of improving local economies and stabilising these two strategic regions.
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is a crucial aspect of modern-day geopolitics because it provides timely and accurate information to inform decision-making processes. By leveraging various open sources such as social media, news outlets, and other publicly available data, intelligence agencies can detect emerging trends and patterns in all aspects of life, including political, economic, social and technological domains.
Japan has one of the fastest-declining fertility rates and one of the highest rates of ageing in the world. The Japanese government is trying to reduce this problem through social, economic, and demographic policies.
Oil transactions between Saudi Arabia and China could be denominated in the Chinese yuan, a significant development in the evolving international economic and geopolitical landscape. If this move happens, it could have far-reaching implications for the US dollar’s status as the dominant global currency, as well as for US-Saudi relations and broader regional dynamics in the Middle East.
The recent ‘diplomatic crisis’ between Iran and Azerbaijan, which has involved the Iranian diplomatic staff in Baku, underlined the potential political and military escalation between the countries, whose consequences might hugely influence the security in the South Caucasus.
In the last months, the South Caucasus has again experienced regional turbulence. While there have been protests in Georgia over a controversial draft law that would have required some organisations receiving foreign funding to register as “foreign agents”, Armenia and Azerbaijan might be again on the edge of an escalation involving the CSTO and, therefore, Russia.
The South Caucasus and the Middle East have long been at the epicentre of geopolitical, ideological and ethnic tensions. While the Israel-Iran hybrid war is experiencing a new momentum, ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan might open a second front in which both Tel Aviv and Tehran might be involved.
Increased Russian investments in Adygea confirm the Kremlin’s strategy to implement the North Caucasus’ socioeconomic development and transform the region into a logistics hub supporting the diversification of Russian exports.
Recent negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan on investment cooperation confirmed Riyadh’s strategy in Central Asia based on financial support to local governments’ infrastructural projects and humanitarian aid.
The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) might be considered one of Central Asia’s most strategically important areas, attracting multiple global powers’ attention. Under Dushanbe’s control, the region has experimented with the confrontation between the central authority and the local population.
SpecialEurasia Managing Director, Silvia Boltuc, met in Astana the Chairman of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kazakhstan, Supreme Mufti Nauryzbai kazhy Taganuly, to discuss the role of Islam in the country and the relations between the Kazakh Muslim umma (community) and other Muslim countries.
Le elezioni parlamentari in Kazakhstan potrebbero dare stabilità al paese e completare il processo di riforme avviato lo scorso anno volto a garantire sicurezza interna, supporto al Governo e al presidente così come a rassicurare gli investitori sul mercato interno kazako.
SpecialEurasia discussed with Alexandr Sharov, General Director of the transport company LLC Neftekhimtrans, Group of companies Rusiranexpo, the current geopolitical significance of the INSTC and possible future developments and impact in the Eurasian strategic chessboard.
Upcoming parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan mark the last step for the country’s complete reformation based on modernisation and democratisation according to the new path promoted by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov’s visits to Bishkek and Dushanbe marked the Russian-led military organisations’ attempt to play a prominent role in resolving the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border dispute and, therefore, stabilising the region.
Russia-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan’s ‘trilateral gas union’ might represent geopolitical leverage in favour of Moscow and Beijing because it might simultaneously satisfy the Chinese energy market’s needs and support the Russian and Chinese foreign policy in Central Asia.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member countries discussed the establishment of a free trade zone, which might become a significant step in strengthening Emirati financial and economic presence in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard and support Russian financial strategy to contrast Western sanctions’ consequences.
The presence of the Musul’manskij korpus “Kavkaz” in the Ukraine conflict stressed the significant role that volunteer battalions have in supporting Kyiv and fighting against the Russian Federation, which they consider an imminent threat to the Ukrainian territory and the Muslim umma.
Antony Blinken’s visit to Astana stressed Washington’s interests in Central Asia since the region has played a vital role in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard, especially after the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.
In Russia, the detention of five people connected with the terrorist organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and a person linked to Katiba al-Tawhid wal-Jihad confirmed FSB’s effort to guarantee regional security and avoid the link between local Russian citizens and terrorist organisations operating in the Middle East.
Following the allegations of Iran being involved in the Ukrainian conflict by delivering weapons to Russia, Tehran has been under severe international pressure and sanctions. Given its good relationship with Iran and its neutral foreign policy, Oman might emerge as a strategic regional mediator and help resolve critical issues such as the revival of the Iranian nuclear deal and the dispute between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Il forum economico “Russia – Mondo islamico” che si svolgerà a Kazan nel maggio 2023 sottolinea l’importanza che il mondo musulmano ha nella politica estera russa, in special modo a seguito delle imposizioni delle sanzioni occidentali che hanno spinto Mosca a riversare i propri interessi su mercati alternativi.
Since Uzbekistan and Vietnam are expanding their economic cooperation and relations, Tashkent might promote its role in Central Asia as a regional interconnector. At the same time, Hanoi might support its foreign policy by establishing a strategic partnership with international and regional actors.
The recent meeting between the Turkmen ambassador to Italy and the Italian Trade Agency’s representatives highlighted business potentialities between the two countries, Rome’s desire to increase its presence in the Turkmen and Central Asia markets, and Ashgabat’s strategy to diversify its commercial partners.
La presenza di foreign fighters e battaglioni di volontari in Ucraina accresce il rischio geopolitico dello scacchiere strategico eurasiatico essendo questi attori non statali impegnati attualmente nel combattere le forze armate russe e al contempo collegati direttamente o indirettamente con membri della diaspora o della militanza armata-jihadista che negli ultimi anni hanno operato nello spazio post-sovietico e in Medio Oriente.
Considerando la posizione geostrategica che la Cambogia detiene nella regione del Sud-Est Asia e il rapporto economico che lega Phnom Penh a Pechino, la Repubblica Popolare Cinese ha sviluppato una strategia volta a rafforzare i legami e trasformare lo Stato cambogiano in un elemento fondamentale della sua politica estera regionale.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 27 Issue 4 – The recent meeting between Kazakh and U.S. representatives in Washington stressed Astana’s desire to balance its foreign policy between the West, Russia, and China, and the White House strategy to increase its presence in the Central Asian republic.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked economic sanctions, which are meant to cripple the economy while detracting from Russia’s ability to wage war. This paper will analyse the sanctions’ impact, the war on the Russian economy and possible future implications.
In 2023, military escalations, domestic political turmoil, and economic crises might increase Iran and the Caucasus’ geopolitical risk and threaten regional security, whose consequences might broadly destabilise the Eurasian strategic chessboard.
In 2023, foreign actors’ interests, terrorism, authoritarianism, and economic slowdown might threaten Central Asia and AfPak’s security and stability and increase regional geopolitical risk.
This report stems from the research project titled “Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence and Challenges to Psychological Security in Northeast Asia” (21-514-92001) and jointly funded by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) and the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS).
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 26 Issue 3 – SpecialEurasia met with the Serbian university professor Marija Djoric to discuss the current security situation and terrorist threat in the Balkans.
The Russian State Duma’s official visit to Abkhazia confirms the Kremlin’s presence in the South Caucasus and the Abkhaz territory’s strategic role in Russia’s foreign policy. Moscow-Sukhum improving relations stress the Russian desire to confirm its influence in the Caucasus in a challenging time characterised by the Ukraine conflict and the confrontation with the West.
After the November 13th terrorist bombing attack in Turkey, Ankara started a military operation targeting Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq. While Russia is concentrated on Ukraine and Iran is facing internal turmoil, Turkey is gaining ground in the Middle East.
Due to Malacca’s geopolitical centrality, China has strengthened economic-diplomatic dialogue and relations with Southeast Asian countries, especially Indonesia.
The beginning of the Ukraine conflict drew a line under the development of the geopolitical situation on the Eurasian continent over the past three decades since the beginning of the 1990s.
Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s recent visit to the United Arab Emirates confirms Turkmenistan’s interest in expanding ties with the Gulf monarchies and Abu Dhabi’s desire to increase its presence in Central Asia.
In the context of the Ukraine conflict and the Brussels- Moscow confrontation, the European Union attempts to expand its activity and presence in Central Asia by improving connectivity projects and cooperation.
Stavropol authorities’ desire to open trade offices abroad might underline Russia’s strategic economic goal in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard, especially in Azerbaijan, Iran, China, and the United Arab Emirates.
Considering the South Caucasus’ current geopolitical scenario, we discussed with Vahagn Khachaturyan, President of the Republic of Armenia, the country’s prospects in the changing world and possible regional developments to assess local stability and security and evaluate Armenia’s potentialities.
The creation of the Turan Battalion confirmed that the Ukraine conflict had become the perfect battleground for international fighters and contractors united by the desire to fight against the Russian Federation and promote their ideologies and goals.
After almost three decades on the sidelines of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict negotiation process, the European Union has now stepped in, positioning itself as a mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conciliation process.
The current situation in the Korean Peninsula represents a severe threat to economic-strategic stability in the East China Sea geo-maritime space for the United States, the People’s Republic of China, and the Russian Federation.
SpecialEurasia met with Paruyr Hovhannisyan, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, with whom we discussed Yerevan’s regional and foreign policy and Armenia’s strategy to protect its sovereignty and citizens.
SpecialEurasia met with Hripsime Grigorianand Artur Hovhannisyan, members of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, to investigate the Government’s domestic politics and assess the national situation.
SpecialEurasia met Vahan Kerobyan, the Minister of Economy of the Republic of Armenia, to investigate current Armenian economic trends and performance, the main drivers’ sectors, investment opportunities and fiscal policy.
On October 16th, 2022, Xi Jinping opened the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in a speech lasting about two hours, outlining the main challenges that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will have to face in the coming years to pursue the China Dream policy design.
SpecialEurasia had the opportunity to interview Hamid Saifi, a former Afghanistan National Army commanding officer (5thBrigade of the 203rd Thunder Corps) and current member of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, to discuss the actual situation on the ground, the NRF strategy and deepen our knowledge about the local dynamics in Afghanistan.
The Second Caspian Sea Economic Forum highlighted regional countries’ strategies to implement their cooperation in logistics, transport corridors, tourism and energy projects.
The Stavropol territory welcomed representatives from the Middle East and Africa in the event “North Caucasus in the Changing World”, whose goal was to create a link between the region and potential foreign investors and markets.
The first “Central Asia-Russia” summit in Astana confirmed the Russian importance in the region and the Kremlin’s strategy to increase economic cooperation with Central Asian republics.
While the CSTO military exercises were taking place in Tajikistan, Dushanbe received U.S. representatives who confirmed Washington’s interest and strategy in strengthening the security and defence of the Tajik-Afghan borders.
Tokayev’s suggestion to create an organisation in the framework of the CIS to promote the Russian language might be interpreted as Kazakhstan’s attempt to normalise relations with Russia, which were downgraded due to the Ukraine conflict and the Western sanctions.
Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has played a decisive and influential role in assisting the Russian military operations on the ground with his kadyrovtsy and Chechen troops and supporting the Kremlin’s ideological confrontation with the West.
Due to its geographical position in the Asia-Pacific, Myanmar plays a strategic role in China’s regional policy, especially in connection with the Malacca Dilemma.
Due to the borders drawn by the former Soviet Union with no regard for ethnic, political, economic, and cultural factors, the Central Asian countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have faced each other for 31 years, and the recent military escalation highlighted regional instability and geopolitical strategies promoted by Dushanbe and Bishkek.
In October 2022, representatives of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Russia will attend the second Caspian Economic Forum hosted in Moscow to discuss future energy cooperation and projects.
The United States and Japan have intensified their military, commercial and diplomatic cooperation to counter Russia and China’s strategy in the Asia-Pacific and strengthen Washington’s foreign policy Pivot to Asia.
The Azerbaijani army’s aggression against Armenia raises concerns about the stability of the South Caucasus, an area which plays a fundamental role in the EU Energy Security Strategy.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 23 Issue 2 – In recent years, the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in renewable resources, particularly in the hydropower sector. Under the Xi Jinping administration, this energy sector has progressively assumed a role in sustaining part of the electricity demand of both the industrial and civil sectors.
Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Italy confirmed Baku’s interest in strengthening commercial and business partnerships with Rome and attracting Italian investments in the reconstruction process in the Nagorno-Karabakh territories, which are now under Azerbaijani control.
Over the years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has consolidated its relations with the countries of Central Asia, exploiting either the Persian common ethnic-cultural element or proposing itself as a logistic hub for the energy sector and trade corridors.
Nanci Pelosi’s visit to Taipei and the U.S. military manoeuvres in the region confirmed Washington’s interests in the Asia-Pacific and the United States’ attempt to achieve political-strategic goals in an area which has experienced the rise of Chinese military and political presence.
In a world of growing polarity, Kazakhstan has been attempting to portray itself as a bridge connecting the East and the West. However, the so-called Russian “special operation” in Ukraine has forced the Central Asian nation to distance itself gradually from Moscow.
China and Japan are competing in the East China Sea on the local energy resources considered fundamental in Beijing’s economic and foreign policy and Tokyo’s strategic approach to the Asia-Pacific.
Among the framework of Rimpac 2022, Washington has organised several training activities to enhance interoperability between the U.S. Navy, Amy, Marines and Airforce and the armed forces of allied countries part of the Asia-Pacific region and contrast the rising Chinese threat in the area.
The sixth summit of the Caspian Sea states underlined the region’s geopolitical importance and the desire of every country involved to resolve legal status and issues and promote cooperation in transport, logistics and trade.
The People’s Republic of China and the United States have embarked on a foreign policy aimed at influencing political and economic dynamics in Vietnam, a republic in the Asia-Pacific which plays a strategic role thanks to its geographical position.
Although Russian – Iranian ties date back to the Islamic Revolution, Moscow’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine (or special military operation as the Kremlin has always declared) and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions have strengthened the cooperation and pushed these Western adversaries together.
Over the past two months, the tension in Greek-Turkish relations has reached new heights. What triggered it seemed to have been the age-old Turkish claims concerning the continental shelf delimitation and the total demilitarisation of the Greek Islands in the Eastern Aegean.
US Indo-Pacific Command coordinated the Valiant Shield exercise conducted near the second island chain and in the Philippine Sea to counter the Chinese presence in the Asia-Pacific.
Since the U.S. troops’ withdrawal and the Taliban’s rise to power, Afghanistan has witnessed huge uncertainty, instability and destabilisation due to the terrorist threat and criminal activities, economic problems, interethnic confrontation aggravated by the Taliban interim government, and regional and international geopolitical interests.