Executive Summary
On 28 February 2026, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), in coordination with the United States military, started a large-scale preemptive strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The operation, designated ‘Operation Roaring Lion’ by Israel and ‘Operation Epic Fury’ by the United States, aims to dismantle Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile programs.
Tehran started a broad retaliatory offensive, deploying drone and missile barrages targeting Israel and American interests in Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
The escalating situation has transformed regional tensions into intense warfare, requiring prompt modifications to the security arrangements of allied nations.
Key Takeaways
- The joint US-Israeli offensive targeted high-value command nodes and nuclear facilities in Tehran, Isfahan, and Qom to achieve rapid degradation of Iranian strategic depth.
- Tehran has activated a regional retaliatory doctrine, conducting strikes against the US Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and launching a large-scale aerial offensive toward northern Israel.
- A prolonged conflict may severely affect entire Middle East, increase the regional geopolitical risk, and have repercussions on trade, logistics, and energy markets.
Facts
On the morning of28 February 2026, the Israeli Ministry of Defence confirmed the execution of strikes against Iranian sovereign territory. Initialreportsstated Israel launched seven missiles in northern Tehran’s Shemiran district. These aerial attacks deliberately targeted objectives next to thePresidential Palaceand the compound belonging toSupreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Despite assurances from Iranian state media thatPresident Masoud Pezeshkianis safe, the condition of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader is unconfirmed after his reported transfer to a secure location.
Concurrently,US President Donald TrumpdeclaredUS forces had begun ‘major combat operations’ to neutralise immediate threats to national security.
The US Department of Defence has mobilised the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, supported by 50 fifth-generation F-35 and F-22 aircraft. In response, theIslamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)launched a ‘first wave’ of ballistic missiles and loitering munitions. Regional authorities in Bahrain confirmed a direct attack on theUS Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Juffair.
TheUnited Arab Emirates’ air defence systems successfully intercepted multiple projectiles above Abu Dhabi; however, falling debris from the interception led to one civilian casualty and property damage in a residential zone.Qatar and Kuwaitalso reported engaging incoming threats, while Saudi Arabia issued a formal condemnation of the violations of state sovereignty.
Analysis
The current offensive represents a fundamental shift from the attritional tactics observed during the June 2025 conflict. US-Israel military attacks aimed to destabilise the Iranian government’scommand and controlby striking at its core administrative and symbolic functions.
However, the IRGC’s rapid transition to offensive operations against Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states indicatesTehran prepared extensively for this contingency, likely utilising ‘Smart Control’ naval strategies to threaten maritime energy corridors.
The success of the allied campaign hinges on the efficacy of theIron Beam laser interception system. Given that historical data from 2025 suggests a rapid depletion of THAAD interceptors, the successful deployment of directed-energy weapons is vital to offset the costs of a prolonged missile exchange.
Moreover, the ongoing instability on thePakistan-Afghanistan border, marked by anactive conflictbetween the Taliban and Islamabad, further complicates the regional security landscape. Despite verbal endorsements from both the Taliban and the Pakistani government, their present engagement in open conflict impedes their capability to render substantial help to the Iranian administration.
Implications
- Energy Security:A potential Iranian blockade or kinetic disruption in theStrait of Hormuzcan trigger a sharp spike in global Brent crude prices.
- Nuclear Proliferation:The deterioration of existing nuclear facilities might compel the Iranian regime to move its remaining nuclear assets to clandestine, underground locations, thereby expediting weaponisation as an ultimate deterrent measure.
- Regional Contagion:Hostilities are likely to spread to Iraq and Syria, where pro-Iran militias such as Kataeb Hezbollah have already sustained casualties from allied strikes.
- Diplomatic Realignment:GCC states may further restrict the use of their airspace for offensive sorties to mitigate the risk of being targeted by Iranian retaliatory swarms.
- Domestic Stability:The Iranian administration might leverage the external threat to solidify its authority and quash internal opposition, or alternatively, risk complete disintegration should the strikes successfully fortify elements of the opposition.
Conclusion
US-Israel joint military action started on 28 February 2026 has effectively ended the previous regional status quo. The coalition’s success is contingent upon its capacity tomaintain high-intensity operations while simultaneously safeguarding critical assetswithin the Persian Gulf against retaliatory asymmetric attacks.
The strategic forecast shows a phase of significant military confrontation for all parties involved, maintaininga considerable geopolitical risk of a wider conflict across the continent. The focus must now shift to maintaining the integrity of global energy supplies and monitoring for signs of regime instability within Tehran.
Last Update: Saturday 28 February 2026 – Time: 11.30 am CET
