Executive Summary
Russian Deputy Defence Minister Vasily Osmakov and Taliban Deputy Defence Minister Mohammad Farid met in Moscow on 29 January 2026 to formalise military cooperation.
The conversation ensues following the Kremlin’s official recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, to foster systemic security engagement. The meeting addresses rising instability on the Afghan-Tajik and Afghan-Pakistani borders to secure Eurasian transport routes.
The escalating collaboration between Russia and Afghanistan in security and defence underscores Moscow’s strategic goal to augment its political, economic, and military influence within Afghanistan, while simultaneously countering other foreign entities, including the People’s Republic of China and the United States.
Key Takeaways
- Moscow and Kabul are establishing a systemic military partnership to manage regional security and border threats.
- Russia seeks to act as a security guarantor for Central Asia by embedding its influence within the Afghan military structure.
- Control over Afghan security allows Russia to influence Chinese economic projects and regional transport logistics.
Background Information
On January 28, 2026, the Russian Ministry of Defence hosted consultations with a delegation from the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Deputy Minister Vasily Osmakov met General-Colonel Mohammad Farid, the Deputy Minister of Defence for Strategy and Policy. This meeting signifies a transition from adherence to protocols to implementing practical inter-departmental collaboration. The official agenda was concise, concentrating on the status and future outlook of military collaboration in strategically important domains. The two parties have resolved to implement additional collaborative measures to formalise ongoing cooperation between their respective defence ministries.
This meeting is part of the Kremlin’s strategy towards Afghanistan, characterised by the Russian official recognition of the Islamic Emirate in July 2025 and the involvement of the Taliban in different economic forums and meetings.
These discussions are occurring amid heightened volatility at the Afghan borders with Tajikistan and Pakistan. The security situation along the Tajik-Afghan border has previously experienced direct conflict, marked by assaults on Chinese nationals. These incidents have delayed the progress of transport projects in Tajikistan funded by Beijing. Moscow aims to occupy a position that China has not yet secured by obtaining direct security leverage within Afghanistan.
Why Does It Matter?
Moscow aims to establish direct security influence in Afghanistan, positioning itself as a guarantor of stability in Central Asia. To achieve this objective, the Russian Ministry of Defence must establish a presence within the security frameworks of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. This action confers upon Moscow an advantage concerning border control and the curtailment of militant incursions.
The stability of these borders ties into the security of regional transport corridors. Control over the Afghan security environment provides Russia with an indirect mechanism to influence Chinese economic interests.
China remains a major financier of transport infrastructure in Central Asia and the wider region. Attacks against Chinese citizens in Afghanistan create a requirement for a reliable security broker.
Russia positions itself as a broker to define the rules of influence in Eurasia. The Taliban administration intends to leverage these military engagements to enhance its regional standing and fortify its national frontiers. A structured engagement with Moscow provides the Kabul administration with a powerful partner in its strategy and policy departments.
The United States monitors these developments with concern. Washington wants to keep control over the external relations of Kabul. Any augmentation of Russia’s influence in Afghanistan poses a threat to the regional arrangement supported by the United States.
Over the past year, the Trump administration showed its intention to reclaim Bagram Air Base and re-establish a presence at this facility. Despite President Donald Trump’s discussion of this opportunity being confined to a social media update, a previous alleged visit by CIA operatives into Afghanistan has elicited concern from Moscow and Beijing. This has strengthened the increasing geopolitical focus on Kabul from diverse regional and global entities.
Outlook
The transition to systemic military cooperation suggests a long-term Russian presence in the Afghan security sector. Moscow will probably increase its role as a mediator and protector of Central Asian borders.
This strategic placement enables Russia to mitigate the risks posed by militant factions and the potential for violence to spread. Subsequent advancements could enable the Russian Federation to dictate terms for Eurasian transportation and logistics by leveraging this security role.
The viability of Chinese transportation initiatives is contingent upon the security framework resulting from these Russian-Afghan deliberations. It is probable that the United States will endeavour to counteract this influence by applying pressure on the external connections sustained by Kabul.
*Cover image: A moment during the meeting between Russian and Taliban defence representatives (Credits: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation)
