Executive Summary
This report analyses Moscow’s recent public support for Armenia’s legal system and stability, assesses how Yerevan’s pro-EU policies affect trade and defence cooperation between the two countries.
The report also examines the strategic message behind Yerevan’s talks with Brussels about defence cooperation linked to the Armenian stance in the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Key Findings
- The Russian Federation has formally reiterated its commitment to Armenia’s constitutional framework and civil liberties, indicating its enduring political involvement in Yerevan’s internal affairs.
- A closer relationship between Armenia and the European Union has correlated with a substantial decline in trade between Armenia and Russia, leading to a projected annual loss of several billion US dollars.
- This year’s announcements of multiple joint military exercises involving Armenia underscore the enduring importance of security cooperation within the bilateral relationship, notwithstanding economic tensions.
Background Information
Russian foreign-policy spokespeople have emphasised the Kremlin’s desire to see a stable, prosperous and constitutionally governed Armenia anchored in rule of law. Simultaneously, senior Russian economic officials cautioned that Yerevan’s progressive integration with European markets risks curtailing current trade volumes, resulting in a reduction of up to USD 6 billion in annual bilateral trade.
On June 30, 2025, Armenia and the European Union have begun discussions on cooperation in the defence sector. Russian officials emphasise that Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organisations (CSTO) remains sovereign and unchanged, despite Yerevan’s recent decision to freeze its CSTO membership.
Concurrently, Armenian authorities reported a significant increase in domestic spirits exported to Russia in late June, highlighting persistent economic interconnectedness notwithstanding a general economic deceleration.
Geopolitical Assessment
Moscow’s declared focus on Armenia’s constitutional order serves dual purposes: it reinforces Russia’s role as Yerevan’s principal security guarantor while subtly discouraging any wholesale pivot to Western political models.
The correlated decline in trade shows Russia’s considerable economic leverage, which it uses to shape Armenia’s foreign policy. However, Yerevan’s talks with Brussels regarding defence cooperation provide Armenia with continued deterrence against regional adversaries and counter Moscow’s influence in the country.
Given the recent arrests of opposition figures accused of plotting a pro-Russian coup, Moscow risks diminished influence in Armenia, ceding ground to the European Union.
Considering also the recent diplomatic crisis between Russia and Azerbaijan, the Kremlin’s imperative is to maintain its presence and influence in the Caucasus since this region is part of its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) and lebensraum (vital space).
Outlook
In the near term, Russia is likely to sustain a calibrated mix of economic pressure and security reassurance to curb Armenia’s EU-leaning initiatives. Yerevan’s future trajectory suggests a continued focus on establishing diversified partnerships, leveraging its geopolitical context to get concessions from both Moscow and Brussels.
Given Moscow’s military presence in Armenia and the heightened geopolitical risk stemming from recent Armenian-Azerbaijani border tensions, the potential for increased Russian military pressure on Armenia is significant.
Yerevan’s medium-term trajectory hinges on its capacity to reconcile competing influences while preserving internal stability and avoiding excessive defence commitments.
