Executive Summary
This report analyses the developing geopolitical dynamics involving the South Caucasus, especially Armenia and Azerbaijan, set against the backdrop of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict.
It explores the threats posed to both Armenia and Iran by Israel’s military cooperation with Baku and examines the broader implications for regional stability.
Additionally, the report assesses how European energy diversification efforts, particularly via Israeli and Azerbaijani corridors, are reshaping alliances and fuelling rising tensions in the South Caucasus and the Middle East.
Key Takeaways
- Azerbaijan’s alleged support for recent Israeli strikes on Iran risks triggering direct retaliation from Tehran, undermining regional stability.
- Baku may now seek to capitalise on Tehran’s entanglement in a potential conflict with Tel Aviv to forcefully secure the “Zangezur Corridor”, reshaping regional transit routes to its advantage.
- European powers, prioritising energy security over international law, have largely refrained from condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza and Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, thereby contributing to destabilisation.
Information Background
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched coordinated airstrikes across 12 Iranian provinces, killing several senior Iranian military and scientific figures, including a lead negotiator involved in ceasefire efforts. The strikes took place amid a period of relative calm during ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, talks that had the potential, albeit limited, to ease international sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, in a phone call with Seyed Abbas Araghchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, emphasised that the Republic of Azerbaijan will under no circumstances allow its airspace or territory to be used for attacks against Iran or any other countries.
This comes amid speculation that Azerbaijan may have offered its territory to Israel to support military operations against Iran.
Armenia condemned Israel’s strikes on nuclear facilities and military sites across neighbouring Iran and called for an immediate end to the military action.
Geopolitical Scenario
Tehran has long been one of Yerevan’s principal allies, consistently resisting any territorial adjustments to Armenia’s sovereign borders, particularly in response to Azerbaijan’s claims regarding the so‑called “Zangezur Corridor.”
Iran’s top foreign policy adviser has confirmed that Tehran successfully blocked a proposal for a land corridor connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey via Armenia’s Syunik province, warning that the initiative posed significant regional security risks and threatened to isolate Iran from key transit routes. Iranian officials emphasised that the corridor was not merely a transportation project but rather a strategic geopolitical undertaking.
Recent Israeli airstrikes in Iran’s East Azerbaijan province triggered speculation regarding Azerbaijan’s possible involvement in supporting the offensive. Furthermore, unconfirmed sources reported drones approaching Bandar-e Anzali coming from Azerbaijan’s maritime border in the Caspian Sea.
During an interview with Tejaratnews in October 2024, Iranian diplomat Amir Mousavi asserted that Israeli missiles would have to be launched from submarines or deployed via F‑35 aircraft to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, both requiring access to neighbouring countries’ airspace. Mousavi warned that any country permitting such overflight or siding with Israel would be considered a legitimate target by Iran, and Tehran would respond accordingly.
Recently, regional social media reported a noticeable increase in cargo flights from Ovda Air Base in southern Israel, Tel Aviv’s only base authorised to transport explosive materials, to Baku. The latest flight, an Ilyushin Il‑76 (registration 4K‑AZ102), operated between Eilat and Baku International Airport from June 9 to 10, following previous missions from Tel Aviv and Ovda in March.
A Haaretz investigation detailed Israel’s substantial role in enabling the ethnic cleansing of Armenians in Nagorno‑Karabakh/Artsakh. Based on flight‑tracking data and Associated Press reports, Israeli cargo planes transported weapons to Azerbaijan immediately prior to the September 2023 offensive, directly reinforcing Azerbaijan’s military operations.
From 2016 to 2020, Israel supplied approximately 69% of Baku’s major arms imports, including IAI Harop loitering munitions, cluster munitions, and Barak‑8 air-defence systems. These weapons, including drones, missiles, and defence systems, underpinned a rapid military campaign that forced Armenians from their homes.
Azerbaijan’s nine-month blockade and offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh coincided with Russia’s deepening involvement in Ukraine and were used to test Western responses to critical violations of international and humanitarian law. With no substantial condemnation from major European powers, Italy and Germany notably refrained from condemning, while Germany even signed a new energy deal with Baku, Azerbaijan has acted with relative impunity.
Against this backdrop and with Iran entangled in hostilities with Israel and indirectly with its Western allies, the Ankara–Baku axis may be emboldened to military assert control over up to 60% of Armenian territory that Azerbaijan designates as “Western Azerbaijan.”
Azerbaijan’s potential involvement in the recent Israeli strikes against Iran would carry significant reverberations. First, it would significantly undermine Baku’s strategic soft-power efforts to encourage separatism among Iran’s Azerbaijani population, notably in Tabriz, a city targeted in the recent strikes. Second, it could prompt Iran to revisit its investigation into the May 19, 2024, helicopter crash that claimed the lives of President Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian near Uzi in East Azerbaijan province following an official visit to Azerbaijan.
Europe’s involvement in both the Gaza crisis and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has drawn increasing scrutiny. Following the erosion of its partnership with Georgia, Brussels has sought to reposition Armenia as a strategic regional ally in the Caucasus. Nevertheless, Europe’s unwillingness to hold Baku accountable for the blockade and ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh underscores that energy security continues to outweigh human rights and international law in its foreign policy priorities.
This energy strategy involves the integration of offshore gas fields situated off the coast of Gaza (estimated at 1.1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas), resources that, under international law, belong to the Palestinian people. To exploit these reserves and build the required export infrastructure, including ports, Israel needs physical control over the Gaza Strip. These actions are part of a broader effort to position Israel as a key regional energy hub for exports to Europe.
Similarly, efforts continue to integrate Central Asian energy producers into European markets via Azerbaijan and Turkey. While Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” project could achieve similar ends, Ankara and Baku appear intent on delaying its implementation to maintain regional leverage and prevent a shift away from Turkish influence.
Conclusion
The intersection of energy interests, regional rivalries, and shifting alliances is driving a dangerous escalation across the South Caucasus and Middle East. The alignment of Israel, Azerbaijan, and key Western powers risks undermining international law and further marginalising actors like Iran and Armenia.
With Tehran deeply engaged in its conflict with Tel Aviv, and Washington distracted by managing the wider regional tensions, Yerevan faces an increased risk of a military offensive from Baku, which could exploit this strategic distraction to pursue its territorial goals.
Although not officially acknowledged, the removal of Palestinians from Gaza and the establishment of the so-called “Zangezur Corridor” would represent strategic gains for Europe. These developments align with its aim to position Israel as a key energy distribution hub and would finally allow a direct connection to the energy-rich Central Asian republics via Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Without a recalibration of strategic priorities, the current trajectory may entrench conflict and destabilise critical transit corridors vital to global energy and security frameworks.
