Executive Summary
This report outlines the contents of a leaked eight-page planning document by the FSB’s Department of Counterintelligence Operations (DKRO), which describes China as a significant intelligence threat to the Russian Federation.
Although the Kremlin officially portrays Sino-Russian relations as strategically aligned, according to the leaked document, the FSB views China as an adversary, especially concerning military espionage, technology theft, and regional power plays.
The report contextualises the leaked document in the realm of intelligence and also considers Russia’s geopolitics influenced by the country’s imperatives and constraints which drive Moscow’s foreign policy, especially towards Beijing.
Key Takeaways
- According to an intel leaked document, the FSB regards China as an active intelligence threat.
- Besides Moscow and Beijing have increased their cooperation and relations, both the parties have clashing interests in strategic areas: Central Asia, Asia-Pacific, the Arctic.
- Should the document be validated, it could significantly affect relations between Russia and China and provide an opportunity for the West.
Background Information
The US media New York Times published an article based on a so-called leaked document written by the Departament kontrrazvedyvatel’nyh operacij (DKRO) of the Russian FSB. This document, drafted between late 2023 and early 2024, signals high-level internal concern in Moscow regarding Chinese intelligence activities on Russian soil.
The report alleges that Chinese intelligence agencies are aggressively recruiting Russian officials, scientists, and journalists, especially those facing financial difficulties or personal hardship. The focus of Chinese actors has also included Moscow’s progress in Arctic development, military operations in Ukraine, and scientific achievements in aeronautics.
The New York Times reports also that three days before the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, the FSB approved a counterintelligence programme codenamed “Intesa-4”, whose aim was to block Chinese espionage efforts despite its name ironically referencing the diplomatic closeness between Moscow and Beijing.
Strategic Context
The New York Times’ publication of the leaked FSB document may be a form of psychological and information warfare, intended to worsen relations between Moscow and Beijing. This strategic communication aims to fracture their alliance, sow discord within the Russian leadership, and influence Kremlin foreign policy.
The aim might be to create sufficient internal and external pressure on Russia to prompt a reassessment of its position and encourage engagement with Western proposals for a negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
This eventuality can find evidence in the words and information provided by the New York Times. In its article, the US newspaper highlights the following risks and constraints facing Russia in an article based on a possible leaked document (this information cannot be confirmed or denied):
- Operational Constraint. Instructions to Russian counterintelligence services prohibit them from publicly naming China as an adversary, thus limiting overt countermeasures to avoid political fallout at the leadership level.
- Strategic Vulnerability. The Ukraine conflict has shifted military and intelligence resources westward, leaving eastern counterintelligence vulnerable and increasing Russia’s exposure to Chinese intelligence activities.
- Regional Pressure. Countering China’s growing influence in the Arctic and Central Asia is proving challenging, as aggressive action risks harming vital economic ties and regional collaborations.
Geopolitical Scenario
Because of the Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions, Russia depends increasingly on China for economic and some military support. Economic isolation, losing European energy markets, and the urgent need to redirect natural gas exports have pushed Moscow to strengthen its trade, energy, and defence relationships with China.
Russia’s worries about China recruiting spies near the Kremlin, coupled with China’s interest in sensitive military tech and wartime data, show a complex relationship of cooperation and distrust.
The global political scene is witnessing a growing rivalry between Russia and China, although both the parties have always promoted their positive relations. Central Asia remains a critical arena, with Moscow seeking to maintain its traditional influence as part of its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad), mixing political meetings, economic opportunities, cultural diplomacy and military involvement, while Beijing aggressively expands its economic footprint through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The Arctic presents another emerging front of rivalry. Russia considers the Arctic crucial for its strategic and economic interests, especially energy and shipping, while China, identifying itself as a “near-Arctic state,” seeks to influence the region’s governance and infrastructure, even without a direct Arctic border.
Adding to the complexity of Asia-Pacific security, Moscow’s increased military cooperation with North Korea introduces additional factors. Beijing, keen to maintain its influence over Pyongyang and avoid destabilisation on the Korean Peninsula that could affect its regional interests, is concerned by this development.
These trends highlight the transactional nature of the Sino-Russian partnership, hampered by significant underlying strategic tensions.
Forecast and Scenarios
- Sustained Espionage with Political Restraint. China is likely to maintain or expand its intelligence activities, whereas Russia, politically hampered by its need for Chinese backing, will be restricted to clandestine monitoring and low-key deterrent actions.
- Incremental Shift Toward DPRK and Non-Chinese Actors. Moscow could reduce its dependence on China, particularly for dual-use technologies and arms, by expanding military cooperation with North Korea and other countries in the region.
- Controlled Escalation in Counterintelligence Measures. Russia could secretly retaliate, through arrests or expulsions, for example, if China’s actions cross red lines, such as recruiting for key military programs, while outwardly appearing neutral.
- Western Interests and Exploitation of Sino-Russian frictions. The United States and other Western nations can leverage growing tensions and disagreements between China and Russia, particularly in Central Asia, the Arctic, and intelligence sharing, to undermine their alliance and limit their combined power.
