Executive Summary
The centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged victorious in the 2025 German federal elections, but building a coalition government is proving difficult. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, reflecting a significant decline in its national influence.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has achieved its best electoral performance yet, but remains politically isolated. Substantial setbacks for the Greens and FDP complicated their role in coalition talks.
Germany’s fractured political landscape forces the CDU to seek coalition partners for a stable government. The new administration faces major challenges: immigration, economic recovery, and adapting foreign policy to the changing global landscape.
The report, based on local sources and meetings held during our visit to Baden-Württemberg, aims to analyse Germany’s political landscape after the elections , assessing the impact of the results, party dynamics, and potential implications for governance and stability.
Key Takeaways
- Despite its victory, the CDU faces challenges in forming a stable coalition.
- The SPD’s collapse and reduced influence in coalition negotiations signal a generational shift.
- The AfD achieved record electoral gains but remains politically isolated.
- Coalition scenarios remain uncertain, with a CDU-led government likely requiring the support of either the SPD or the Greens.
German Elections Results
On February 23rd, 2025, German voters elected representatives to the Bundestag under the country’s mixed-member proportional representation system. As expected, the CDU emerged as the strongest party, securing 37.2% of the vote, a notable improvement from its 2021 result but still below the 40% target. The Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) also saw a resurgence in regional support. However, no party achieved an outright majority, necessitating coalition negotiations.
Baden-Württemberg’s federal election mirrors the federal government’s results, with the CDU securing a clear victory at 31.6% (+6.8 percentage points), according to preliminary ultimate results. The AfD surged to second place with 19.8% of the vote, a 10.2 percentage point increase, ahead of the SPD (14.2%, down 7.5%) and the Greens (13.6%, down 3.5%).
In Bavaria, the AfD nearly doubled its vote share, reaching 19%, contributing to significant national gains. In Berlin, the party’s standing improved from 9.4% in 2021 to 15.2%. However, mainstream parties continue to ignore the AfD in coalition talks. In Berlin, the socialist Left Party secured an unexpected victory, winning 19.9% of the vote. This represents a near-doubling of its previous result, signalling a shift in urban voter sentiment. Meanwhile, the SPD saw a dramatic decline, particularly in Berlin, where it fell from 22.2% to 15.1%, marking an all-time low. The Greens also suffered losses in the capital, decreasing from 22% to 16.8%.
Voter turnout was exceptionally high, reaching 83.5%, the highest since unification in 1990. This surge in participation reflected heightened public interest amid growing polarisation and concerns over economic and security issues.
German Political Parties’ Reaction
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the SPD acknowledged his party’s defeat, describing the outcome as a significant setback despite strong campaign efforts. Although he plans to stay on as acting Chancellor, he acknowledged the party’s preparations for a generational shift. He declined to participate in coalition talks but reiterated the SPD’s commitment to its principles, notably social justice and EU migration policy.
Friedrich Merz, the CDU’s chancellor candidate and next Chancellor, declared victory and expressed gratitude to voters. He stressed his dedication to a government representing all Germans, while acknowledging the difficulties of coalition talks. While he would prefer a one-party coalition, he recognised the likelihood of needing a second partner. Despite the AfD’s electoral success, Merz emphatically rejected any collaboration, reaffirming his commitment to stricter immigration policies and the enforcement of bans on illegal immigrants. Despite his criticism of SPD policies, he acknowledged that cooperation with the party could be necessary, depending on the dynamics of any coalition.
Alice Weidel, the AfD’s chancellor candidate, celebrated the party’s best-ever election result, positioning it as a major political force. She expressed a willingness to join the government and claimed that the CDU has adopted several AfD policy positions. She noted, however, that mainstream parties still refused to work with hers. Weidel foresaw an unstable coalition government of the CDU, Greens, and SPD, potentially leading to the AfD overtaking the CDU in later elections.
Markus Söder, leader of the CSU, highlighted his party’s strong regional performance, particularly in Bavaria. He reiterated the CSU’s refusal to cooperate with the AfD, highlighting major disagreements on European integration, NATO policy, and international relations. While he favoured a government without the Greens, he acknowledged the need for flexibility in coalition negotiations. He also criticised the Greens’ positions on economic and migration issues, questioning their coherence.
Robert Habeck, the Greens’ chancellor candidate, described the election results as mixed. While the outcome was not as disastrous as feared, it fell short of expectations. He expressed openness to joining a coalition with the CDU and SPD despite past disagreements. Habeck also expressed worry over the AfD’s rising power, cautioning against its acceptance into the mainstream of German politics. The Greens’ candidate emphasised the need for immediate European action on foreign policy, especially considering unpredictable U.S. policies under Trump, which he believed jeopardised European security and Ukraine’s stability.
Janine Wissler, leader of the Left Party, expressed relief that her party secured parliamentary representation despite initial concerns. She clarified the Left Party would not join a coalition but would instead remain in opposition, both in Parliament and through grassroots activism. She pledged to resist any attempts by Friedrich Merz’s government to roll back social welfare protections.
Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, acknowledged a disastrous election outcome for his party, with its support declining sharply. He said he would resign after eleven years as leader if the FDP did not win any parliamentary seats. He attributed the party’s poor performance to an inability to communicate its achievements effectively within the outgoing coalition government.
Mohammad Ali of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) described the election results as uncertain for his party, as it remained on the threshold of entering Parliament. Regardless of the outcome, he considered the party’s regional growth a success. He expressed no regrets about splitting from the Left Party, despite its stronger electoral showing.
Conclusion
Friedrich Merz will begin coalition discussions on Monday, February 24th, 2025. Given his firm rejection of an alliance with the AfD, his most viable coalition partners are the SPD or the Greens. A three-party coalition involving the FDP also remains a possibility. However, if coalition talks fail, Germany may face a hung Parliament or new elections.
Germany’s political landscape remains fragmented despite the CDU’s electoral victory. Coalition discussions will shape the new government’s approach to immigration, economic revival, and international relations.
While the CDU is best positioned to lead, it faces formidable challenges in securing a stable governing alliance. The SPD’s decline, the AfD’s rise, and the FDP’s potential parliamentary exit underscore the shifting dynamics of German politics. The outcome of coalition talks will be critical in shaping Germany’s domestic and international trajectory in the coming years.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 51 Issue 14
Author: Silvia Boltuc
Contact us at info@specialeurasia.com and request our tailored report or consulting regarding elections in Germany.
