Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 51 Issue 6
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
This report examines the outcomes of the second trilateral meeting Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan held in Ankara on January 29th, 2025. The meeting focused on advancing cooperation in trade, investment, and transport, with particular attention to the development of the Middle Corridor as a vital trade route between Asia and Europe.
The Ankara Declaration commits to strengthening regional connections using infrastructure development, digital tools, and shared security approaches. Key strategic objectives include improving transport efficiency, strengthening economic ties, and fostering regional stability, particularly in Afghanistan and the South Caucasus.
This report assesses the geopolitical significance of these initiatives and their potential impact on regional and global stability.
Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan’s Cooperation:
Background Information
On January 29th, 2025, a key trilateral meeting occurred in Ankara between the foreign ministers, economic and trade ministers, and transport ministers of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. The primary focus was on strengthening trade, economic, and investment ties, with a particular emphasis on enhancing regional transport networks. The signing of the Ankara Declaration highlighted the commitment to a unified transport infrastructure, regional cooperation, and increasing the efficiency of the Middle Corridor.
Shared regional and strategic interests, particularly in trade, energy, transport, and infrastructure development, ground the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan trilateral cooperation.
Deep political and economic ties, including significant energy partnerships, exist between Turkey and Azerbaijan. In contrast, Uzbekistan focuses on increasing its regional prominence in Central Asia and fostering stronger connectivity with Europe via Turkey. Their interest in improving regional infrastructure unifies the three countries, especially transport corridors, to bolster economic growth and security in a region marked by geopolitical challenges, including the situation in Afghanistan and the wider Middle East.
Key actors in this cooperation include the governments of Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan, as well as various international organisations, such as the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), which plays a critical role in regional integration efforts.
The development of the Middle Corridor, linking Asia to Europe via Azerbaijan and Turkey, is central to the trilateral partnership, alongside projects like the Trans-Afghan railway, which aims to enhance regional connectivity and trade.
Geopolitical Assessment
The recent Ankara meeting and the signing of the Ankara Declaration represent a significant step toward deeper integration among Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. The focus on the Middle Corridor is a strategic play to boost Asian-European connectivity, aiming to make it a major trade and energy pathway, thus reducing reliance on established sea routes. This development is important given the increasing competition in global logistics and the need for alternative routes to ensure energy and trade security.
Assistance in fostering Afghanistan’s economic and social stability, facilitated by the Trans-Afghan railway, underscores a common regional stabilisation aim. These transportation projects, if successful, will not only improve the economies of the three countries but also increase regional security by lessening the influence of powers like Russia and China in Central Asia.
Investments in infrastructure, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, and digital initiatives like streamlined customs processes between Ankara, Baku, and Tashkent, show a commitment to the Middle Corridor’s competitiveness. These improvements target enhanced trade efficiency and reduced logistical hurdles, thereby boosting the corridor’s global trade appeal.
Strategic and Security Implications
Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan trilateral cooperation has profound geopolitical implications, particularly for Russia’s influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The successful expansion of the Middle Corridor could diminish Moscow’s dominance over regional transport routes by providing an alternative to its traditional northern and southern corridors.
This shift would not only weaken the Kremlin’s economic leverage over Central Asian states, which Russia consider as part of its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) and lebensraum (vital space), but also reduce its ability to use infrastructure dependencies as a tool of geopolitical influence. Simultaneously, the Middle Corridor could challenge Beijing’s BRI by offering a competing trade route that limits the Chinese capacity to control and dictate the flow of goods between Asia and Europe.
Ankara’s growing influence in the post-Soviet region and the Middle East heightens the risk of conflict with Moscow and Beijing. Turkey’s deepening engagement in the South Caucasus—particularly its past support for Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh and its broader regional connectivity initiatives—threatens Russia’s traditional hegemony in the region. As Turkey expands its influence in Central Asia—a region historically dominated by Russia and increasingly targeted by China’s economic growth—both powers may retaliate. Responses could range from diplomatic and economic pressure to more assertive security measures designed to protect their strategic interests.
The broader geopolitical consequences of this trilateral cooperation include an increased risk of regional instability. To counter Turkey’s growing influence, Russia might increase its own power using military alliances, control over energy supplies, or pressure tactics. Similarly, China may respond by intensifying its economic engagement with Central Asian states to reaffirm its position within the BRI framework.
In addition, focusing on Afghanistan may inadvertently expose Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan to heightened jihadist propaganda and terrorism risks, particularly given their planned infrastructural cooperation with the Taliban.
Conclusion
For decision-makers (governments, public institutions, companies), Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan trilateral cooperation presents both opportunities and risks in the developing Eurasian geopolitical landscape.
By offering an alternative trade route, the Middle Corridor is directly challenging Russia’s dominance over Central Asian transport networks, lessening its economic power, and vying with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Turkey’s expanding power in the former Soviet Union and the Middle East could strain relations with Russia and China, possibly resulting in economic and security responses. Engagement in Afghanistan, particularly through infrastructure projects with the Taliban, may expose the three nations to heightened security risks, including extremism and regional instability.
Decision-makers must closely monitor these developments, assess their long-term implications (especially the potential rising geopolitical risk), and assess possible frictions that could reshape power dynamics in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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