Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 51 Issue 4
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey has solidified its strategic position in Syria through a series of agreements with the new transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Establishing Turkish military bases in Syria, expanding access to its airspace, and participating in the training of Syria’s new army are central to these developments. These steps reflect Ankara’s drive to fill the vacuum left by Moscow and Tehran’s waning influence in the region.
The partnership’s major goal is countering Kurdish forces, especially the YPG, which Ankara considers a terrorist organisation.
Syria:
Background and Context
The abrupt fall of the Assad regime in late 2024 marked a significant shift in Syria’s geopolitical environment. The Syrian opposition, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rapidly gained control of key cities, culminating in Assad’s departure.
The transitional government now seeks to establish a new political order, facing challenges of integration and military reform.
Turkey’s role in the Syrian conflict has escalated, positioning itself as a crucial stabilising and security-providing element within the country’s developing governance structure.
Collaboration with the interim government jeopardises the strategic positions of Russia and Iran, concurrently introducing novel instability risks within the region.
Intelligence Assessment
Turkey’s negotiations with the transitional government, particularly with President Ahmed al-Sharaa, focus on a joint defence pact. The proposed agreement includes the establishment of Turkish military bases in central desert region (Badiyah), with key installations at Palmyra and T4 airbase.
Ankara intends to use these bases for military operations, encompassing air defence, and concurrently supporting the training of Damascus’ reformed military forces. In exchange, Turkey secures broader control over Syrian airspace and a strengthened position in the fight against the YPG, an affiliate of the PKK, which Ankara views as a terrorist organisation. This collaboration is essential to safeguarding the Turkish national security, as it supports its ongoing efforts to neutralise Kurdish militant groups along its southern frontier.
The Turkish-Syrian security pact is not yet finalised, but it represents a significant step in Ankara’s increasing influence over the Middle Eastern country. By allowing Turkish military forces into the country, the transition government in Damascus is clearly seeking Ankara’s assistance with national unity and reconstruction; however, the geopolitical ramifications are substantial.
Turkey’s military and political involvement in the Middle Eastern country may escalate tensions with the Gulf Arab states, particularly those aligned with Saudi Arabia, and could provoke security concerns for Israel.
Furthermore, Turkey’s increasing influence in the Middle East could provoke violent attacks against Turkey from Kurdish groups and terrorist organizations. Indeed, the October 2024 attack on Turkish Aerospace highlights Turkey’s vulnerability to terrorism. Therefore, Ankara’s growing role in Syria and the MENA region could further expose the country to jihadist attacks, threatening its stability and security and the central authority.
Conclusion
Turkey’s expanding military and strategic partnerships with transitional government are significantly altering the regional power dynamics. The establishment of Turkish military bases, particularly those positioned in central Syria, will allow Ankara to enforce its security interests, particularly in Kurdish insurgencies.
The Turkish military presence also directly challenges Iran’s previous attempts to establish a “Shia Crescent” across the region. Moreover, the creation of a new Syrian army under Turkish tutelage could further erode Moscow’s longstanding influence in the country, particularly in defence matters.
Gulf monarchies might view Ankara’s military presence in Syria as a threat to their regional interests. Indeed, the establishment of military bases to counter Kurdish groups in the Middle Eastern country may lead to heightened instability in Syria and neighbouring countries, notably Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel.
Close monitoring of these agreements is crucial for decision-makers interested in assessing the region’s geopolitical risk, particularly considering potential conflict escalation and the competing regional influences.
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