Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 50 Issue 10
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Executive Summary
The January 26th, 2025, presidential election in Belarus resulted in Alexander Lukashenko extending his 31-year rule. Western governments have widely criticised the electoral process, citing the absence of free and fair conditions. The election took place against the backdrop of heightened political repression, lack of opposition candidates, and Belarus’ deepening alignment with Russia.
The election has intensified international scrutiny, with the European Union and other entities rejecting the results and considering additional sanctions.
Even though Lukashenko’s limited political prisoner releases suggested a potential shift in the country’s approach toward international relations, Belarus remains a pivotal actor in the regional geopolitical landscape due to its strategic location and involvement in Russian operations.
Background Information
On January 26th, 2025, Belarus held presidential elections in which Alexander Lukashenko secured 86.8% of the vote, according to official results. This marks the continuation of his leadership since 1994. Western nations and international organisations have denounced the election citing the suppression of the independent press, the imprisonment or exile of political opponents, and the absence of meaningful electoral competition.
Belarus’ political landscape has experienced increasing centralisation of power since the mass protests of 2020. Over 1,200 political prisoners remain detained, with human rights organisations reporting ongoing intimidation and restrictions on civil society. The pre-election period saw heightened security measures, including the use of the military to safeguard polling stations.
Minsk’s geopolitical alignment with Moscow has intensified following the 2020 presidential crisis and the beginning of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022. Belarus has provided logistical support to Russian military operations and has hosted Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Belarus: Geopolitical Scenario
Belarus is strategically located between NATO member states and Russia, making it a critical buffer zone and an operational base for Russian military activities. The nation’s topography and infrastructure enable swift troop deployment, affording logistical benefits to the Russian military campaign in Ukraine. The presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons within Belarusian territory underscores its strategic role in regional power dynamics.
Historically, Belarus has maintained close ties with Russia, leveraging this relationship for economic and political support. Since the 2020 protests, the regime has intensified its reliance on Russian backing, including financial aid and security assistance. The recent election and release of prisoners in July 2024, among other occurrences, point to a strategic recalibration of the regime’s stance in the face of sustained international isolation.
Belarus exerts limited economic and military power independently but plays a significant role as an enabler of Russian influence. The nation’s political authority is maintained through rigorous internal controls, encompassing the suppression of dissent, media censorship, and the strategic use of security personnel.
Key imperatives for the Belarusian government include maintaining government stability, securing Russian support, and navigating international isolation. Constraints on its actions include economic sanctions, domestic opposition, and the geopolitical implications of its alignment with the Kremlin. The Belarus government’s domestic policies are driven by the imperative to quell dissent and pre-empt mass mobilisation.
Forecasting
In the near term, under Lukashenko’s leadership, the country will continue relying on the Russian support and expanding relations with “non-aligned countries” such as the Islamic Republic of Iran of the People’s Republic of China. While the Belarusian government may conditionally release certain political prisoners or make limited conciliatory gestures towards the West, comprehensive policy revisions are improbable because they can alter the internal or regional circumstances.
Potential scenarios include:
- Continued alignment with Russia: Belarus remains a key logistical and strategic partner for Russian operations, further entrenching its role in the conflict in Ukraine.
- A Possible Selective engagement with the West: Limited overtures, such as prisoner releases, could indicate attempts to reduce diplomatic isolation, despite the huge critics coming from the European Union and other Western countries regarding the presidential elections’ outcome.
- Increased internal dissent: Continued strict policies and control may lead to heightened tensions domestically, with the potential for sporadic unrest or resistance activities.
The long-term effects depend on the progression of the Ukrainian conflict, changes in Russian power, and the development of domestic resistance in Belarus.
Conclusion
The January 2025 election reinforces Belarus’ position as a key actor in the regional geopolitical landscape. Minsk’s role and support to Moscow’s regional strategy in Ukraine and the post-Soviet space is a determining factor for the future of Belarus.
The recent election may embolden Lukashenko to merge state control and pursue a foreign policy focused on strengthening ties with Russia while simultaneously cultivating relationships with BRICS, Eurasian Economic Union, and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members.
Picture: The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko (Credits: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
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